Inkling Public Site

Make a prediction

Spend money (inkles) to express what you think will happen.

Next

Wisdom of the crowd

Everyone's predictions are combined in to a single prediction.

Next

Judgment time

Were you right or were you wrong about your prediction?

Don't show this again

Will water be discovered on an earthlike extrasolar planet by the end of 2007?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Water planet discovered

(closed)

Predicted: 3.15%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

January 01, 2008 @ 12:00am PST

topic

Science

Predictions Made

71

Most by: Garth Brewer (12 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

Rashad   •   Thu Jul 12 2007 at 09:15am PDT

Scientists find signs of water beyond solar system
Wed Jul 11, 2007 5:21PM EDT Reuters

By Michael Kahn

LONDON (Reuters) – Astronomers said on Wednesday they had discovered the best evidence yet of water outside our own solar system — in the atmosphere of a giant planet 60 light years from Earth.

Writing in the scientific journal Nature, researchers said the planet itself, HD 189733b, was unlikely to harbor life but evidence supported the search for life in other solar systems.

“We’re thrilled to have identified clear signs of water on a planet that is trillions of miles away,” Giovanna Tinetti, a European Space Agency fellow at the Institute d’Astrophysique de Paris in France who led the study, was quoted as saying in an accompanying news release.

A light year is the distance a beam of light travels in one year at 186,000 miles per second (300,000 km per second), or close to 6 trillion miles.

The Earth’s moon is only 1.3 light seconds from our planet.

“Although HD 189733b is far from being habitable, and actually provides a rather hostile environment, our discovery shows that water might be more common out there than previously thought, and our method can be used in the future to study more ‘life-friendly’ environments,” Tinetti said.

Investigations showed the planet, which orbits a star in the constellation of Vulpecula (the Fox), appeared larger at wavelength bands that corresponded to water, suggesting the substance was present in the atmosphere.

“We find that absorption by water vapor is the most likely cause of the wavelength-dependent variations in the effective radius of the planet at the infrared wavelengths,” the researchers said.

HD 189733 b is known as a “hot Jupiter” planet — like the solar system’s gas planet Jupiter but far hotter.

The findings contradicted earlier studies showing no evidence of water, said Heather Knutson, an astronomer at Harvard University who reviewed the findings in the same issue of Nature.

However, the earlier studies looked at light emitted from the day side of the planet while the latest research used a different method that measured light transmitted through the outer edges of the planet’s atmosphere, Knutson said.

This suggested there might be something hiding a water signal in the previous measurements, she said.

“In the long term we could evaluate other planets that could support life and have water in their atmosphere,” Knutson said in a telephone interview.

diamond   •   Thu Jul 12 2007 at 09:57am PDT

This story is what inspired me to create this market.

Note that the planet discussed in the article is a gas giant; this market is about whether such a discovery will be made on an “earhtlike” planet (i.e., a rocky body, similar in size to earth, and within the “habitable zone”).

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
Help
Ajax-loader

More information about the possible answers

Water planet discovered