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Which 'Tom' Mike or John will be the last one remaining in the Presidential primaries?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Fred Thompson

(closed)

Predicted: 0.26%

Actual: 0.00%

John Edwards

(closed)

Predicted: 0.32%

Actual: 0.00%

John McCain

(closed)

Predicted: 94.84%

Actual: 100.00%

Mike Gravel

(closed)

Predicted: 2.32%

Actual: 0.00%

Mike Huckabee

(closed)

Predicted: 2.84%

Actual: 0.00%

Tom Tancredo

(closed)

Predicted: 7.60%

Actual: 0.00%

Tommy Thompson

(closed)

Predicted: 1.99%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

July 31, 2008 @ 06:00pm PDT

Predictions Made

360

Most by: stomv (244 predictions)

Discussion

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zakarria   •   Fri Jul 13 2007 at 01:48pm PDT

If none of these men win either nomination, but only two of them officially drop out before nominations are made, will the other five all be winners?

Will democrats and republicans who don’t win be considered to have stayed in equally long even though their party conventions are a week apart?

Mantecan As Fan   •   Mon Jul 16 2007 at 08:06am PDT

If the first situation occurred, which i do consider unlikely, then yes i will pay on every candidate still in the race upto the day their respective parties announce their nomination.
In answer to your second question, Yes i had considered that and yes they will be considered as staying equally long. The cutoff point as it were will be the first convention held. (i forget off hand who’s is first)

wstritt   •   Wed Jan 23 2008 at 04:56pm PST

Zakarria – Excellent catch!

Mantecan – You may want to rethink your solution, or perhaps rethink the closing date if that is how you propose to pay off. Since this market is set up as a one winner market (probabilities add up to 100%), if you have multiple 100% payouts, that means the possibility off unlimited Inkles if, say, Huckabee and McCain last through all of the primary season without withdrawing. Equilibrium in that case, I think, is that both keep trading around 50 for the 2 months between the last primary and market close. With payoff of 200 (2 times 100) but a cost of 100 (2 times 50), all the Inklings available should flood in to the market.

As much as I am a fan of free Inkles, I doubt that is the result that either you intended or Inkling Markets would want. Perhaps you need to think of some other tiebreaking mechanism like largest % of their party’s delegates.

stomv   •   Tue Jan 29 2008 at 07:46am PST

Yeah, but the problem there is that folks have bought in on one premise, and by changing the rules of the game you’re screwing over half the shares.

The problem is that it’s a bad market — it shouldn’t be paying out only on one winner.

zakarria   •   Thu Jan 31 2008 at 04:06pm PST

Coulda been organized better, but at this point it doesn’t look like it’ll be an issue. I was kind of assuming if one of the people mentioned won their nomination, that would count as them making it farther than anyone who stayed in all the way even though they were losing (hello, Gravel). If that’s the case, it’s gonna be a clear win for McCain, and no multiple-winner situation will be in the cards.

Mantecan As Fan   •   Tue Feb 05 2008 at 04:54pm PST

Yeah i know i could have organised it better but i never really expected it to be an issue and certainly at this point it does not appear to be one. And yes absolutely if one nomination is announced yes obviosuly they would be making it further. i dont think anyone really expects Gravel or Huckabee to seriously win their nomination at this point.
Hey it was my first political market give me a break here!!! :-)

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Fred Thompson

John Edwards

John McCain

Mike Gravel

Mike Huckabee

Tom Tancredo

Tommy Thompson