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Judgment time

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Will Congress pass a Continuing Resolution preventing a government shutdown by Monday 30 September 2013?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

CR not needed- budget is passed.

(closed)

Predicted: 0.85%

Actual: 0.00%

No.

(closed)

Predicted: 72.87%

Actual: 100.00%

Yes.

(closed)

Predicted: 26.27%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

September 29, 2013 @ 10:00am PDT

Predictions Made

63

Most by: leto2 (8 predictions)

Discussion

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SneakyPete   •   Mon Sep 30 2013 at 09:18pm PDT

Congress (Senate & House) failed to pass a CR by Monday 30 September 2013.

SneakyPete   •   Sat Sep 28 2013 at 03:53pm PDT

Just for clarification. If a CR is passed by both houses of Congress before 23:59.59 (11:59.59 pm) EDST on Monday 30 September 2013, the market will cash out as “Yes”. If later, the market will cash out as “No”. There is a 0% chance of a budget being passed.

SneakyPete   •   Sat Sep 28 2013 at 06:48am PDT

It looks like we will be seeing a “Ping Pong” game taking place. Back and forth between the Senate and House. How will the game last remains to be seen.

ChloeBurns   •   Thu Sep 12 2013 at 11:21am PDT

I understand your stipulation that only Congress’ actions and not President Obama’s determine the outcome of this market. However, I must point out that Congress passing a CR does not prevent a government shutdown. The CR does not become law until it is signed, and if it contains provisions unacceptable to the President it will not become law. Congress does not prevent a shutdown without passing legislation that the President will sign, i.e., legislation that neither delays nor defunds Obamacare.

towstore   •   Sat Sep 28 2013 at 05:59am PDT

I think it is silly to suggest that the President will not sign whatever CR Harry Reid sends him. This is the gutless wonder, “I knew nothing”, “the Republicans are terrorists”, “I’m for working-class families”.

SneakyPete   •   Thu Sep 12 2013 at 02:49pm PDT

I fully agree with your comment that Congress passing a CR does not prevent a government shutdown and that the CR does not become law until it has been signed by the President. We will never se anything close to defunding Obamacare taking place, Never in a month of Sundays will that happen.

Rationales

"President has nothing to gain by caving on Affordable HC law, and GOP leadership can't keep a leash on the tea party."

gbartles sold No. at 68.65%
September 28, 2013 @ 03:22pm PDT

"They need to agree"

joenb bought CR not needed- budget is passed. at 1.22%
September 13, 2013 @ 06:47pm PDT

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
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