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Between 25 September 2013 and 31 March 2014, will any members or alternate members of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China be arrested on charges of bribery, embezzlement, or abuse of power?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

If China reports an annualized quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate below 7.5 percent beforehand

(closed)

Predicted: 54.00%

Actual: 54.00%

If China does not report an annualized quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate below 7.5 percent beforehand

(closed)

Predicted: 9.28%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

March 31, 2014 @ 09:00pm PDT

Predictions Made

47

Most by: malcmur (11 predictions)

Discussion

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predictionmarketguy   •   Sun Jan 19 2014 at 07:22pm PST

It’s come in at 7.7%, according to multiple news reports

predictionmarketguy   •   Sat Jan 11 2014 at 08:01pm PST

If the question were whether such an arrest will happen by, say, 31 March 2015, I’d say yes. But the Chinese have a long investigative process before formally arresting high-ranking officials. There just doesn’t seem to be enough time between now and then for such an arrest to happen.

kogo   •   Wed Oct 16 2013 at 08:33pm PDT

Rationales

"overpriced"

predictionmarketguy sold If China does not report an annualized quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate below 7.5 percent beforehand at 36.45%
March 06, 2014 @ 12:58pm PST

"I think such an arrest will happen, but not by then."

predictionmarketguy sold If China does not report an annualized quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate below 7.5 percent beforehand at 58.42%
January 11, 2014 @ 08:03pm PST

"I think there's not enough time for this prediction to pan out."

predictionmarketguy sold If China reports an annualized quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate below 7.5 percent beforehand at 58.52%
January 11, 2014 @ 08:03pm PST

historical trend

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