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Will the United Kingdom's Tehran embassy *officially reopen before 31 December 2013?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

If the Iranian embassy in London is officially reopened beforehand

(closed)

Predicted: 52.40%

Actual: 52.40%

If the Iranian embassy in London is not officially reopened beforehand

(closed)

Predicted: 25.81%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

December 30, 2013 @ 09:00pm PST

Predictions Made

96

Most by: job (26 predictions)

Discussion

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globaljason   •   Thu Jan 02 2014 at 01:41pm PST

How was this question scored? It is January 2nd and the UK’s Tehran embassy has still not officially reopened.

The details for this question state: “Note that ‘official’ reopening would require some kind of formal announcement that diplomatic representatives have returned to their posts at the consent or invitation of their foreign government hosts. Any partial or limited re-opening (e.g., to provide basic paperwork or procedural assistance to travelers or expatriates) would not in and of itself qualify as an ‘official’ reopening.”

According to Reuters and other sources, Britain has appointed a non-resident charge d’affaires. This is not the same as diplomatic representatives returning to their posts—a non-resident charge d’affairs is hardly the same as an ambassador based in Tehran—and it is not the same as an ‘official’ reopening. Taking a step towards reopening the embassy is not the same as reopening the embassy. In late November, Foreign Secretary William Hague said that the November nuclear deal with Iran does not mean the UK embassy in Tehran will reopen. “We have to be clear with Iran that an embassy, if we reopen it, would be able to operate properly with all the normal functions. We will take this in a step by step way.” And today Iranian news services stated “The diplomats will remain in their own countries, but will discuss reopening of embassies in London and Tehran.”

job   •   Thu Jan 02 2014 at 01:35pm PST

Why refunding? The answer of both questions is no and should pay out at zero!

globaljason   •   Thu Jan 02 2014 at 01:43pm PST

I am wondering the same thing. But if I understand correctly, the Iranian embassy in London has not officially reopened. Therefore “If the Iranian embassy in London is officially reopened beforehand” should pay out at zero, and “If the Iranian embassy in London is not officially reopened beforehand” should pay out at 100%.

ecotax   •   Thu Jan 02 2014 at 03:30pm PST

As I see it, there is no problem, and the question has been paid out correctly.
The last option is correctly paid out at zero: the condition of the whole conditional question is false (no Iranian embassy has been opened in London) so this is the option that must be scored, and the answer is no (no English embassy has been opened in Tehran).
The other one is correctly voided and refunded, as this corresponds to the other possible value for the condition, the one that didn’t occur, making this whole option therefore as meaningless as any question that starts with ‘if the moon is made of emmentaler cheese …’.
This is how conditional questions work (as I tried to explain earlier, see below).

job   •   Thu Jan 02 2014 at 03:12pm PST

The last one should also paid out at zero, because the first condition to get a yes is that the UK has opened his ambassy in Tehran!

Trevor   •   Wed Oct 23 2013 at 09:10pm PDT

“Commenting on Iran-UK relations, Afkham said that Tehran and London agreed to maintain ties at the level of non-resident chargés d’affaires and the UK embassy in Tehran will be reopened.” [http://en.trend.az/regions/iran/2203372.html]

AND

“Britain and Iran have taken a significant step toward reopening their respective embassies in Tehran and London by appointing chargés d’affaires and holding talks about staffing on the eve of new negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme.” [http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/oct/08/britain-iran-embassies-london-tehran-hague-rouhani]

job   •   Wed Oct 23 2013 at 11:24am PDT

So, if the UK doesnot open his embassy in Teheran, both answers wil pay out at zero!

ecotax   •   Thu Oct 24 2013 at 02:42pm PDT

I don’t think so – it’s a conditional question. One answer will be voided, and the other paid out.

job   •   Sat Nov 09 2013 at 11:33am PST

But the answer of both versions of the questions is NO, if there will be no embassy in TEHRAN before December 31!

historical trend

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