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Where will Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 be located?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Crashed in Cambodia

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Crashed in China

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Crashed in Laos

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Crashed in Malaysia

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Crashed in Thailand

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Crashed in Vietnam

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Crashed in another country

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

In a sea or ocean east of Malaysia

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

In a sea or ocean south of Kuala Lumpur

(closed)

Predicted: 0.03%

Actual: 0.00%

In a sea or ocean west of Malaysia

(closed)

Predicted: 0.02%

Actual: 0.00%

Landed without crashing

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Other or not found by 31 July 2014

(closed)

Predicted: 99.92%

Actual: 100.00%

  • completed

Question ends

July 31, 2014 @ 08:04am PDT

Predictions Made

445

Most by: job (123 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

SneakyPete   •   Sun Apr 20 2014 at 11:13am PDT

Happy Easter to all…..

jlow1967   •   Sun Apr 20 2014 at 02:34am PDT

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/04/20/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/

Nothing so far, I don’t know if this can be done.

Trevor   •   Fri Apr 18 2014 at 09:40am PDT

alibaba   •   Thu Mar 27 2014 at 06:26am PDT

This is an exceptionally poorly designed market to a very interesting question.

GradualStudent   •   Thu Mar 27 2014 at 07:00am PDT

One option may be to create a second market with a different take on it.

GradualStudent   •   Mon Mar 24 2014 at 07:56am PDT

The market price on being found “In a sea or ocean south of Kuala Lumpur” jumped way up to 90% at least momentarily earlier today, wonder what the news was that drove that.

bobdevine   •   Mon Mar 24 2014 at 11:51am PDT

Malaysia’s prime minister said Monday that the missing Malaysia Airlines flight “ended in the southern Indian Ocean.”

http://washington.cbslocal.com/2014/03/24/high-tech-us-military-search-plane-finds-nothing-in-indian-ocean-after-chinese-plane-spots-suspicious-objects/

EdG1975   •   Mon Mar 24 2014 at 10:42am PDT

Some unawareness of the geographical situation in that part of the world from my side

SneakyPete   •   Fri Mar 21 2014 at 06:31pm PDT

The longer the search lasts, the less chance in my opinion, the aircraft will be found. IF all the avionics were turned off, and the aircraft was headed towards the Antarctic frozen regions where the ocean depths are deep. The results are slim, to none, that she will be found. Sad to say.

mvguy   •   Thu Mar 20 2014 at 06:24pm PDT

Clarification: Locating debris from the plane will not be considered locating the plane itself. Finding debris would make the situation similar to the search similar to the situation involving Air France Flight 477. In that case, debris was found fairly early, but the plane itself wasn’t found for two years.

job   •   Fri Mar 21 2014 at 03:46am PDT

What part of the plane must be found?? The black box????

mvguy   •   Fri Mar 21 2014 at 12:49pm PDT

Basically, I’d say that the plane is found when the mainstream media start reporting that the plane has been found rather than merely debris from the plane and/or when the search operation turns into a recovery operation. I’m assuming that would involve finding the bulk of the fuselage.

Trevor   •   Sat Mar 15 2014 at 01:49pm PDT

But isn’t south of KL and west of Malaysia possible at the same time?

mvguy   •   Sat Mar 15 2014 at 05:18pm PDT

That would count as south. Think of four sectors: Northwest counts as west, northeast counts as east, and the other two count as south.

When I created the market, I wasn’t thinking of somewhere like on the way to Australia. I was thinking of the possibility that the plane started heading back to its originating airport and overshot its destination.

chelseaboys   •   Sat Mar 15 2014 at 11:55am PDT

Can you give us a better distinction between “south of Kuala Lumpur” and “east/west of Malaysia”? What if the plane is found Southwest or southeast of Malaysia, which answer will pay 100 (south of Kuala Lumpur, or east/west of Malaysia)?

mvguy   •   Sat Mar 15 2014 at 01:02pm PDT

It’s a matter of latitude. If the latitude is south of Kuala Lumpur, that counts as south (see the background information). Thus the southern Indian Ocean could count as south.

Rationales

"Looks like a bargain"

jlow1967 bought In a sea or ocean south of Kuala Lumpur at 5.74%
May 26, 2014 @ 07:46pm PDT

"i had a dream"

a$g7Aeze bought Other or not found by 31 July 2014 at 91.87%
May 13, 2014 @ 11:18am PDT

"visual evidence"

MJGoetter bought In a sea or ocean south of Kuala Lumpur at 72.95%
March 28, 2014 @ 09:00am PDT

""The TPL-25 would be towedat 1 - 5 knots" searching "an area covering 2.97 million square miles""

GradualStudent bought Other or not found by 31 July 2014 at 38.24%
March 26, 2014 @ 09:58am PDT

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In a sea or ocean east of Malaysia

In a sea or ocean south of Kuala Lumpur

In a sea or ocean west of Malaysia