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Will Apple sell iWatches/Apple Watches in 2015 or 2016? If so, how many?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED VALUE

TODAY

iWatches sold in Q1 2015 (Jan-Mar)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

iWatches sold in Q2 2015 (Apr-Jun)

(closed)

Predicted: 3,120,000.00

Actual: 3,120,000.00

iWatches sold in Q3 2015 (Jul-Sep)

(closed)

Predicted: 3,360,000.00

Actual: 3,360,000.00

iWatches sold in Q4 2015 (Oct-Dec)

(closed)

Predicted: 5,430,000.00

Actual: 5,430,000.00

iWatches sold in Q1 2016 (Jan-Mar)

(closed)

Predicted: 4,530,000.00

Actual: 4,530,000.00

iWatches sold in Q2 2016 (Apr-Jun)

(closed)

Predicted: 4,530,000.00

Actual: 4,530,000.00

iWatches sold in Q3 2016 (Jul-Sep)

(closed)

Predicted: 4,530,000.00

Actual: 4,530,000.00

iWatches sold in Q4 2016 (Oct-Dec)

(closed)

Predicted: 6,330,000.00

Actual: 6,330,000.00

  • completed

Question ends

January 01, 2017 @ 01:30pm PST

Predictions Made

396

Most by: job (274 predictions)

Discussion

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bobdevine   •   Wed Oct 07 2015 at 11:56pm PDT

Apple still is not revealing the number of watches it has sold.

job   •   Mon Oct 12 2015 at 11:04am PDT

Question will be refunded

job   •   Tue Jul 21 2015 at 02:48pm PDT

No reports about Watches sold in Q2! Refund or has anyone a better idea??

bobdevine   •   Tue Jul 21 2015 at 03:24pm PDT

The stats for Apple Watches was bundled into the “other” category of devices. I’m waiting for an analyst to untangle the numbers.

Rumors are that the quarter had 3.3M Watch sales.

bobdevine   •   Wed Jul 22 2015 at 11:15am PDT

bobdevine   •   Sat Jul 25 2015 at 12:48pm PDT

After a few days of analysts digging through Apple’s quarterly numbers, nobody is yet willing to give a firm number of Apple Watch sales.

But estimates keep dropping…
“Juniper Research estimates that Apple sold between 2 million and 2.5 million units.”
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/23/apple-watch-about-sales-and-revenue-earnings.html

“After studying Apple’s opaque earnings report, several analysts revised their estimates down to about 1.5 million to three million watches.”
http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/07/23/daily-report-sales-of-apple-watch-suggest-a-familiar-path-to-success/

sflicht   •   Mon Jul 27 2015 at 02:04pm PDT

An analyst estimate, even a precise one, couldn’t really be used to resolve this anyway, right? Since it’s pretty highly leveraged, it would be weird to use any number except an official one from Apple…

bobdevine   •   Mon Jul 27 2015 at 02:50pm PDT

Apple refuses to disclose the number of Watches sold because it wants keep that information from competitors.

The best estimate comes from analysis of sales data. Slice estimates (they track Watch sales based on receipts from online shopping) that 3,039,353 watches were sold through July 10th.
http://www.macrumors.com/2015/07/13/apple-watch-sales-estimated-3m-3-months/

job   •   Mon Jul 27 2015 at 02:34pm PDT

I will refund Q2, and undo that if at any moment there will be an official announcement.

sflicht   •   Mon Jul 27 2015 at 02:41pm PDT

Don’t base this on my opinion; I have no exposure to Q2. It sounds like bobdevine is optimistic that precise numbers will be forthcoming, in which case you could just leave it open.

bobdevine   •   Tue Jul 07 2015 at 12:54pm PDT

“Sales of the new Apple Watch have plunged by 90% since the opening week, according to a new market-research report.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-watch-may-not-be-ticking-with-customers-2015-07-07?dist=countdown

job   •   Fri Jun 19 2015 at 10:17am PDT

Slice Intelligence, which tracks online orders by scanning the email inboxes of more than 2M panel members, estimates that Apple has sold 2.79M Apple Watches in the USA, reports Reuters. The estimate does not include sales in the United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong or Japan.

Slice last month reported that around 1.5M U.S. orders were placed on the first day of pre-orders, with sales tailing off rapidly after this. KGI is estimating worldwide sales of 5-6M Watches in Q3, 20-30% down on earlier estimates.

http://9to5mac.com/2015/06/18/apple-watch-sales-us/

job   •   Tue Jun 02 2015 at 10:12am PDT

Apple Watch outperforms all
To date, a total of 2.5 million watches have been shipped, says Trip Chowdhry of Global Equities Research, who cites tracking methods used by developers. Chowdhry told CNN Money that by the end of this quarter, the Cupertino-based company is estimated to ship 5 million Apple Watches, which is well above analysts’ estimates.

http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/06/apple-watch-to-become-apple-inc-s-most-successful-product/

bobdevine   •   Fri May 22 2015 at 10:56pm PDT

bobdevine   •   Mon Mar 09 2015 at 01:01pm PDT

sflicht   •   Mon Mar 09 2015 at 11:48am PDT

The official release date is April 24 (see http://live.theverge.com/apple-watch-macbook-liveblog-march-2015/?_ga=1.31211967.1286443803.1417017957) so the first option can be resolved at zero.

bobdevine   •   Thu Feb 26 2015 at 03:57pm PST

leto2   •   Tue Jan 27 2015 at 03:58pm PST

In today’s conference call Apple said they would ship in April:
http://www.cnet.com/news/apple-watch-to-start-shipping-in-april/

job   •   Mon Jan 26 2015 at 05:09am PST

Kuo expects Apple to ship up to 2.8 million units of the watch in the first quarter of 2015 as the company looks to ramp in as many sales as possible.
Read more at http://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/apple-inc-aapl-to-start-shipping-iwatch-as-early-as-march-ming-chi-kuo-338429/#juw7t3im2Iud7O1O.99

bobdevine   •   Tue Jan 06 2015 at 01:48pm PST

job   •   Tue Nov 04 2014 at 12:39pm PST

bobdevine   •   Tue Nov 04 2014 at 12:51pm PST

The rumors I’ve seen say “spring 2015” means late March.

job   •   Tue Nov 04 2014 at 12:57pm PST

Spring= March 21 until June 21. So it can also mean start selling late June!

bobdevine   •   Tue Nov 04 2014 at 02:58pm PST

bobdevine   •   Tue Sep 09 2014 at 01:52pm PDT

To be nitpicky, Apple will never sell any “iWatches” because the official name will be “Apple Watch”. The “iWatch” name probably was too close to the trademarked “iSwatch” name.

Apple Watch will be available for sale some time in 2015.
http://www.fastcompany.com/3035366/internet-of-things/this-is-apples-smartwatch

job   •   Tue Sep 09 2014 at 02:18pm PDT

For this question iWatch=Apple Watch

job   •   Mon Jun 23 2014 at 11:12am PDT

Apple, Inc.‘s iWatch — No Longer Just Speculation
But the latest rumors about Apple’s alleged smartwatch didn’t come from Apple fan blogs. Instead, the central sources were The Wall Street Journal and Reuters.
The Journal says a contact from one of Apple’s component suppliers is predicting Apple will ship 10 million-15 million smartwatches by year-end.
NextMarket Insights, for instance, predicts annual shipments will grow from a total of 15 million smartwatches this year to 373 million annual shipments in 2020.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/06/23/apple-incs-iwatch-no-longer-just-speculation.aspx

job   •   Fri Jun 06 2014 at 12:07pm PDT

he latest iWatch rumor suggests the highly anticipated device may feature an OLED touchscreen. It is also reported that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has a lot of faith in this gadget and plans on building anywhere from 3 million to 5 million devices a month.
http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/06/apple-iwatch-may-feature-oled-touchscreen/

job   •   Tue Jun 03 2014 at 12:11pm PDT

iWatch release date: When is the iWatch coming out?
Rumour has it that Apple’s iWatch could arrive this year, many suggesting the latter half of 2014, which we’re rapidly approaching.
How many iWatches will Apple sell?
KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo expects shipments of the iWatch to hit around 5.5 million units in 2014, and from 30-50 million units in 2015.

http://www.macworld.co.uk/news/apple/apple-iwatch-release-date-rumours-3425479/

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