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What will be the point value of the 24 horses that qualify to run in the 2014 Kentucky Derby on May 3?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED VALUE

TODAY

Albano (50-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 34.00

Actual: 0.00

Almost Famous

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Ami's Holiday

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Arctic Slope

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Asserting Bear

(closed)

Predicted: 12.00

Actual: 0.00

Awesome Sky

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Bayern

(closed)

Predicted: 12.00

Actual: 0.00

Big Bazinga

(closed)

Predicted: 11.00

Actual: 0.00

Bobby's Kitten (20-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 18.00

Actual: 0.00

Bond Holder

(closed)

Predicted: 4.10

Actual: 0.00

Buck Magic

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Cairo Prince (12-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 14.00

Actual: 0.00

California Chrome (3-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 125.00

Actual: 150.00

Candy Boy (15-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 27.00

Actual: 30.00

Casiguapo

(closed)

Predicted: 10.00

Actual: 0.00

Chitu (30-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 51.40

Actual: 54.00

Classic Giacnroll

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Cleburne

(closed)

Predicted: 0.05

Actual: 0.00

Coastline

(closed)

Predicted: 15.00

Actual: 0.00

Coltimus Prime

(closed)

Predicted: 17.00

Actual: 0.00

Commanding Curve

(closed)

Predicted: 5.00

Actual: 20.00

Commissioner

(closed)

Predicted: 17.00

Actual: 0.00

Conquest Titan

(closed)

Predicted: 12.00

Actual: 0.00

Constitution (8-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 97.00

Actual: 0.00

Dance With Fate (15-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 16.00

Actual: 108.00

Danza (12-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 11.00

Actual: 100.00

Diamond Bachelor

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Divine Oath

(closed)

Predicted: 11.00

Actual: 0.00

East Hall

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Enterprising

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Extrasexyhippzster

(closed)

Predicted: 17.00

Actual: 0.00

Financial Mogul

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Gala Award

(closed)

Predicted: 15.00

Actual: 0.00

General a Rod (20-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 40.00

Actual: 40.00

Giovanni Boldini

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Gold Hawk

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Harry's Holiday (50-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 12.00

Actual: 20.00

Havana

(closed)

Predicted: 14.00

Actual: 0.00

Honor Code

(closed)

Predicted: 14.00

Actual: 0.00

Hoppertunity (10-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 80.00

Actual: 95.00

I'll Wrap It Up

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

In Trouble

(closed)

Predicted: 8.00

Actual: 0.00

Intense Holiday (15-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 79.00

Actual: 93.00

Knock Em Flat

(closed)

Predicted: 8.00

Actual: 0.00

Kristo

(closed)

Predicted: 3.00

Actual: 0.00

Laddie Boy

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Matuszak

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Medal Count (20-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 13.00

Actual: 40.00

Midnight Hawk (30-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 47.05

Actual: 0.00

Noble Moon

(closed)

Predicted: 5.00

Actual: 0.00

Pablo Del Monte

(closed)

Predicted: 14.00

Actual: 20.00

Rebranded

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Ride on Curlin (20-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 25.00

Actual: 55.00

Ring Weekend (50-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 50.00

Actual: 0.00

Rise Up

(closed)

Predicted: 5.00

Actual: 0.00

Rum Point

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Samraat (15-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 90.00

Actual: 100.00

Schoolofhardknocks

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Scotland

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Smart Cover

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

So Lonesome

(closed)

Predicted: 10.00

Actual: 0.00

Social Inclusion

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Son of a Preacher

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Strong Mandate

(closed)

Predicted: 20.00

Actual: 0.00

Surfing USA

(closed)

Predicted: 10.00

Actual: 0.00

Tamarando

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00

Actual: 0.00

Tanzanite Cat

(closed)

Predicted: 5.00

Actual: 0.00

Tapiture (15-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 52.00

Actual: 52.00

Thundergram

(closed)

Predicted: 11.00

Actual: 0.00

Toast of New York (30-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 1.00

Actual: 0.00

Uncle Sigh (30-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 24.00

Actual: 24.00

Vicar's in Trouble (15-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 109.00

Actual: 120.00

Vinceremos (50-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 22.00

Actual: 20.00

We Miss Artie (30-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 50.00

Actual: 60.00

Wicked Strong (8-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 94.00

Actual: 102.00

Wildcat Red (15-1)

(closed)

Predicted: 80.00

Actual: 90.00

  • completed

Question ends

April 12, 2014 @ 07:22am PDT

topic

Sports

Predictions Made

365

Most by: MFWinAlford (152 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

MFWinAlford   •   Sun Apr 27 2014 at 07:01pm PDT

The list is gradually being trimmed down, now at 33 possible contenders, but only 24 (at the most) will be on the final roll to be announced on Wednesday.

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2014-point-standings

MFWinAlford   •   Thu Apr 24 2014 at 04:17am PDT

http://www.drf.com/news/chitu-skip-derby-trial-go-kentucky-derby

Thank goodness. I can’t take too many more defections.

chelseaboys   •   Tue Apr 22 2014 at 06:58am PDT

Midnight Hawk gone, but the Blackhawks aren’t yet!

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Apr 23 2014 at 02:02am PDT

Yup, and there is a connection, as I’m sure you know. In ownership, that is, not necessarily in terms of their fates.

MFWinAlford   •   Tue Apr 22 2014 at 06:35am PDT

All will be decided a week from tomorrow.

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-hope-remains-final-spots

MFWinAlford   •   Sat Apr 19 2014 at 05:17am PDT

Good news on Dance With Fate. I’ll get some of my losses back if he stays in the Run for the Roses.

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-dance-fate-confirmed-starter

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Apr 16 2014 at 08:35am PDT

chelseaboys   •   Wed Apr 16 2014 at 11:30am PDT

Jesus, that was a killer. Good thing inkles ain’t dollars or I’d be putting off retirement (again).

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Apr 16 2014 at 04:49pm PDT

Yup. Well, join the crowd. I lost about 4 million inkles on that one. Hopefully you (and I) have other positions that will pay off when the final list is known.

Rank by Money Earned
Check = Currently participating in question
RANK PERSON TRADES MONEY EARNED
1 Best4Lowell
52 $295,500.00
2 London Bridge
52 $177,900.00
3 Politico
42 $106,500.00
4 Best Record
47 $9,000.00
5 122436
1 $-500.00
6 ajs247
1 $-551.25
7 kribeiro
1 $-553.75
8 Christo
1 $-2,375.00
9 chelseaboys
16 $-139,038.75
10 MFWinAlford
152 $-3,425,500.00

MFWinAlford   •   Tue Apr 15 2014 at 03:17am PDT

With 2 weeks to go till the final field is determined, this list is still in flux. From the DRF website:

Kentucky Derby: There’s still hope for horses ranked below No. 20 in points

With the final round of Kentucky Derby preps with rich point values having been run Saturday, the current point standings mirror the prospective 20-horse field for the May 3 Derby. But there are several horses in the top 20 whose Derby status is uncertain, most notably Blue Grass Stakes winner Dance With Fate, so the possibility looms large of horses currently on the outside eventually earning a berth in the starting gate in the Derby.

As of Monday, the bubble landed on 24 points, the total gleaned by both Cairo Prince and Uncle Sigh. Based on the tiebreaker – earnings in unrestricted graded stakes races – Cairo Prince is in, and Uncle Sigh is out. But there is the strong likelihood that Uncle Sigh will join the Derby field because the bubble will fall further, perhaps getting down to 20 points, a total shared by six horses.

This Saturday’s Lexington Stakes at Keeneland is not expected to affect the points list, since the race is worth a mere 17 points, including 10 to the winner. The Lexington is the final race worth points toward a Derby berth under the system used by Churchill Downs to determine the Derby field if more than the maximum of 20 horses enter.

So, the scoreboard watching will focus on horses like Dance With Fate, Midnight Hawk, Chitu, and Ring Weekend.

Dance With Fate, third on the points list with 108, was flown back to California on Monday, and while he is not officially out of consideration for the Derby, trainer Peter Eurton on Sunday at Santa Anita said there were several reasons why he was against competing in the Derby, including running the horse back in three weeks, and his belief that Dance With Fate is far superior on synthetic surfaces and grass than on dirt.

[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]

Midnight Hawk, most recently second in the Sunland Derby and 15th on the points list with 52, is scheduled to run Saturday in the Grade 3, $500,000 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, his trainer, Bob Baffert, said Monday. Baffert said running in the Illinois Derby – which does not offer points toward the Kentucky Derby – did not necessarily mean that Midnight Hawk was out of the Kentucky Derby, but it would be hard to imagine Baffert running Midnight Hawk back in two weeks.

“This race makes sense because he’s doing well, he worked well, and it’s $500,000,” Baffert said Monday.

Baffert also trains Chitu, the Sunland Derby winner who is 13th in the standings with 54 points. Whereas Baffert said Midnight Hawk worked strongly at Santa Anita on Sunday – prompting him to run in the Illinois Derby – he said Chitu “got a little tired” in his work.

Chitu is scheduled to work again this weekend at Santa Anita, then fly early next week to Churchill Downs. But if he goes there, and Baffert believes the Kentucky Derby too tall an assignment, options could include the Grade 3, $150,000 Derby Trial, a one-turn, one-mile race on April 26. Baffert also trains Santa Anita Derby runner-up Hoppertunity, who is eighth on the points list.

Ring Weekend, 16th in the standings with the 50 points he earned by winning the Tampa Bay Derby, is not certain for the Derby following his distant runner-up effort in the Calder Derby. He is training at Fair Hill in Maryland.

Ring Weekend is owned in part by West Point Thoroughbreds, a partnership that also owns Commanding Curve, who has 20 points and ranks 24th based on the tiebreaker. It is not inconceivable that enough defections could put Commanding Curve in the Derby field and give West Point a Derby starter in lieu of Ring Weekend.

Entries for the Derby are taken April 30. In addition to the 20 who get in, there can be up to four also-eligibles.

John Velazquez will ride Intense Holiday, the Risen Star Stakes winner, in the Derby, trainer Todd Pletcher said Monday. Mike Smith rode Intense Holiday in the Risen Star and his most recent start, a runner-up finish in the Louisiana Derby, but Smith is sticking with Santa Anita Derby runner-up Hoppertunity for the Derby.

chelseaboys   •   Tue Apr 15 2014 at 11:11am PDT

Any chance you might re-open the market so that we can react to that information?

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Apr 16 2014 at 07:14am PDT

I can see profit opportunities here, but I think reopening wouldn’t be fair to those who made, um, predictions. Yes, there is still a lot of uncertainty over exactly which horses will make the list, but I think there are too many inkles that could be taken by whomever gets there first. So I’ve decided to leave it alone and stick with the original conditions.

MFWinAlford   •   Wed Apr 16 2014 at 07:14am PDT

I can see profit opportunities here, but I think reopening wouldn’t be fair to those who made, um, predictions. Yes, there is still a lot of uncertainty over exactly which horses will make the list, but I think there are too many inkles that could be taken by whomever gets there first. So I’ve decided to leave it alone and stick with the original conditions.

MFWinAlford   •   Sun Apr 13 2014 at 05:18am PDT

As noted in the background information, “Updates can be found at http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2014-point-standings” — I am closing out all horses no longer on this list after yesterday’s last major prep races. In the unlikely event that a horse reappears on this list, I will reverse the cashout, but in any case this market is now closed to further trading. Final results will be known by the end of the month.

MFWinAlford   •   Sun Mar 30 2014 at 11:05am PDT

Caveat emptor: the DRF website lists several horses that are inactive and may be off the Derby Trail. These include Harry’s Holiday, Bond Holder, Surfing USA, and Rebranded. See the footnote at the bottom of the page.

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2014-point-standings

amsiegel (ADMIN)   •   Sat Mar 22 2014 at 03:37am PDT

The question and how this market is run is a little confusing – shouldn’t this be phrased as “What will the point value be of the 22 horses who qualify for the Kentucky Derby?” Otherwise it sounds like you’re asking a probability driven question and one would expect each stock to pay out at 100 or 0?

MFWinAlford   •   Mon Mar 24 2014 at 01:50am PDT

Good suggestion. Clarification made.

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Bond Holder