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Who is building the mysterious $700 million office project in Silicon Valley / San Jose?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Amazon.com

(closed)

10.13%

Apple

(closed)

10.71%

Facebook

(closed)

12.38%

Google

(closed)

15.56%

IBM

(closed)

10.29%

Microsoft

(closed)

10.09%

Someone else

(closed)

30.81%

  • expired

Question ends

December 31, 2015 @ 11:00am PST

Predictions Made

72

Most by: stevegt (13 predictions)

Discussion

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romand   •   Wed Sep 09 2015 at 08:53am PDT

are you sure it´s not Inkling Markets Inc?

predictionmarketguy   •   Wed Mar 18 2015 at 01:39pm PDT

Updated news story:
http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2015/01/12/mystery-tenant-update-former-sj-mayorchuck-reed.html?page=all

It’s the question that has bedeviled commercial real estate insiders for more than a year: Just who is the “mystery tenant” slated to occupy a planned 2 million-square-foot office campus in North San Jose?

Former San Jose Mayor Chuck Reed, who is one of the few people to know the company’s identity, left office last month without giving up that secret.

“There’s still a tenant,” he told me in a phone conversation earlier this month. He didn’t say a lot more than that.

job   •   Fri Mar 27 2015 at 09:24am PDT

So far, though, the developer has not submitted building permits, and the project’s planning file does not show any activity since last June.

I think the answer can be NOBODY. Will this be the same as “Someone else” ???

kmcmorr (ADMIN)   •   Wed Mar 18 2015 at 09:24am PDT

Do we know about this tenant yet? If not can we reopen the question?

predictionmarketguy   •   Wed Mar 18 2015 at 01:35pm PDT

I don’t think we know.

How do I reopen the question?

predictionmarketguy   •   Wed Mar 18 2015 at 01:37pm PDT

Okay, I think I got it figured out how to reopen the question. I just edited it and put the end date as 12/31/15.

I’m just as curious as ever about the final result.

kmcmorr (ADMIN)   •   Wed Mar 18 2015 at 01:53pm PDT

Thanks, appreciate it!

lenlesmac   •   Mon Aug 04 2014 at 11:01am PDT

What happens if the in tenant(s) is(are) not disclosed at the closing of this prediction?

predictionmarketguy   •   Tue Aug 05 2014 at 01:14pm PDT

Inkling Markets allows the creator of a question to extend out the date, so I’ll just do that if need be.

lecufr   •   Thu Apr 17 2014 at 09:21pm PDT

Does it necessarily have to be one company taking up all the space? Maybe they’re going to lease a major portion of it out. That could open up the possibilities to more than just the usual heavy-hitters.

predictionmarketguy   •   Sat Apr 19 2014 at 05:15am PDT

The news stories all talked as if it was just one company, but there’s no reason there couldn’t be more than one moving in.

(By the way in that case, for purposes of this prediction market, I guess we’ll have to just go with whichever company is the main occupant. So if Google is going to use 80% and Facebook 20%, Google would be the winning bet.)

predictionmarketguy   •   Thu Apr 17 2014 at 10:59am PDT

It’s interesting that “Someone else” is in the lead. I wonder who that “someone else” could be.

job   •   Thu Apr 17 2014 at 02:37pm PDT

Thousand and more companies could be someone else!

predictionmarketguy   •   Sat Apr 19 2014 at 05:16am PDT

Very good point! I can’t believe I neglected the base rate (since I study this stuff so obsessively), but there it is.

Rationales

"IBM is seeking to do things differently"

#Ref9pam bought IBM at 7.98%
March 27, 2014 @ 05:20am PDT

historical trend

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