Inkling Public Site

Make a prediction

Spend money (inkles) to express what you think will happen.

Next

Wisdom of the crowd

Everyone's predictions are combined in to a single prediction.

Next

Judgment time

Were you right or were you wrong about your prediction?

Don't show this again

Between April 20th 2014 and January 1st 2015, the highest registered earthquake within 100 miles of the city of Los Angeles will be of the following magnitude.

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED VALUE

TODAY

Magnitude 6.0 to 6.4

(closed)

Predicted: 32.73

Actual: 32.73

Magnitude 6.5 - 6.9

(closed)

Predicted: 33.83

Actual: 33.83

Magnitude 7.0 or above

(closed)

Predicted: 21.83

Actual: 21.83

  • refunded

Question ends

May 15, 2014 @ 08:24am PDT

topic

Science

Predictions Made

20

Most by: predictionmarketguy (5 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

bobdevine   •   Wed Jan 14 2015 at 12:28am PST

This question can be judged/closed.

bobdevine   •   Tue Dec 30 2014 at 09:15pm PST

EdG1975   •   Mon Jun 23 2014 at 02:09am PDT

With the time to come till 2015, isn’t it better to keep this one open a few months?

jlow1967   •   Tue Apr 22 2014 at 12:10am PDT

Good question Bob. In the fortunate case of no 6.0 earthquakes or above, the money will be refunded. I should have been more specific with the low end predictions. Thanks!

predictionmarketguy   •   Tue Apr 22 2014 at 09:43am PDT

If I’m understanding correctly, you mean earthquakes taking place between 4/20/14 and 1/1/15, correct?

If so, then should “Below 6.0” be one of the choices?

bobdevine   •   Mon Apr 21 2014 at 07:30pm PDT

How will this question be judged if the maximum earthquake is less than 6.0?

predictionmarketguy   •   Mon Apr 21 2014 at 12:06pm PDT

I found this which may be useful:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_California

I’m not totally sure about California geography, but I think the 1933 Long Beach one, at 6.3, is the highest one to date.

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
Help
Ajax-loader