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When will a hurricane hit Florida?

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May 03, 2016

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July 31, 2018 @ 10:00pm PDT

topic

Science

Predictions Made

95

Most by: job (26 predictions)

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benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Jan 05 2016 at 10:15am PST

This market has been suspended. To forecast similar questions, please visit http://alphacast.cultivateforecasts.com

bobdevine   •   Tue Aug 25 2015 at 11:06pm PDT

Erika might reach Florida at hurricane strength.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2015/Tropical-Storm-Erika

bobdevine   •   Fri Oct 24 2014 at 09:50pm PDT

Trevor   •   Mon Aug 04 2014 at 08:30pm PDT

How do we enter a forecast on this format?

bobdevine   •   Mon Aug 04 2014 at 10:33pm PDT

Your trade will adjust the date up/down. If you think the event will happen sooner than the current value, sell some shares. It’s the reverse if you think the opposite — buy some shares to change to a later date.

On cash-out, your trade will be valued on the difference between your trade and the final date.

NOTE for Inkling — there is a subtle bug that sometimes prevents selling big holdings. Say you buy 100 shares and want to sell them later. Because the market’s date would change based on the sale, selling a large block might push the date back too far. Somewhere in the code is a check if the post-sell date is before today’s date; that check can block the sale.

wstritt   •   Tue Aug 05 2014 at 07:06am PDT

I’ve notice that bug too. I’m guessing the logic is something along the lines of answer can’t be lower than current date if stock has not been cashed out which is generally true (except for Albert Pujols HR market which no one seems to want to cash out). However, there are times you might want the liquidity to invest elsewhere which this bug prevents.

onedave   •   Fri Aug 01 2014 at 06:16pm PDT

We need to watch Bertha.

wstritt   •   Fri Aug 01 2014 at 07:41pm PDT

Maybe. But probably not. On the other hand, this market will probably jinx the state. Glad I don’t live there.

Bob – Might be interesting to have similar market for every Gulf and East Coast state. Let me know if you don’t want to do it.

bobdevine   •   Sat Aug 02 2014 at 11:35am PDT

Bill, if you want to add markets for other states, please go ahead. I don’t know if a “pick a date” will be the best format for the ~dozen states. Maybe a “which state is hit next?” format will attract more action. I dunno.

Rationales

"WAG"

#uGaer4h bought at November 30, 2014
September 04, 2014 @ 02:14pm PDT

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
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