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What will M2 Money Velocity (M2V) be on the following dates?

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December 31, 2020 @ 11:05pm PST

Predictions Made

18

Most by: stevegt (12 predictions)

Discussion

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benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Jan 05 2016 at 10:14am PST

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stevegt   •   Thu Oct 23 2014 at 08:31pm PDT

Looks like the fed revised the last two quarters — now showing 1.533 and 1.535 respectively.

To clarify — I plan to cash out each quarter soon after its first data release, using the official data at the URL shown below. There’s obviously no way to take later revisions into account, so those are only useful for informing future predictions.

I’ve bid the prices up a tiny bit on a few of the future quarters after seeing the revised historical data, for instance.

BeteNoire   •   Mon Oct 06 2014 at 07:59pm PDT

I closed out my short at breakeven since i realized differences in data sources. Too close of a call to make the bet worth it.

BeteNoire   •   Mon Oct 06 2014 at 08:45am PDT

Hmmm, I just realized that Bloomberg figures on this do not match the St. Louis Fed. The Bloomberg numbers have not been above 1.52 since 6-30-13, the Fed number has not gone below 1.52, and has been steady at 1.534 for the last 2 quarters.

Rationales

"slight uptick in recent revisions of historical data"

stevegt bought 2015-07-01 at 1.51
October 23, 2014 @ 08:47pm PDT

"Has not been above 1.52 for a year and has been more or less steadily declining."

BeteNoire sold 2014-10-01 at 1.52
October 06, 2014 @ 06:50am PDT

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
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