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Will the TOPIX Index close at or below 1200.00 **between 20 August 2014 and 31 October 2014?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Yes

(closed)

Predicted: 33.45%

Actual: 100.00%

  • completed

Question ends

October 30, 2014 @ 09:00am PDT

Predictions Made

93

Most by: lenlesmac (9 predictions)

Discussion

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jds (ADMIN)   •   Fri Nov 07 2014 at 11:13am PST

Hey guys,
Jack from Inkling here. As was noted in the comments, there was talk of a bug in the accounting dealing with the uh-oh closing and reopening and then re-closing of this market. After looking through the logs, I found there was a bug that affected a few of the traders here. Because of this, I’ve changed the balances of those trades (all in the positive direction). If anyone else thinks they should have gotten a refund or didn’t get all the money back that they should have, please contact us and I’ll take a look.

millerlogan   •   Fri Nov 07 2014 at 11:47am PST

Could you check on my trades for this one. I don’t have them but at the time I remember thinking something was off. My balance swung considerably after it closed.
Thanks,
Miller

jds (ADMIN)   •   Mon Nov 10 2014 at 07:20am PST

Hey Miller,
Checked the logs and you were missing 1500 from the bug, so your account is credited with those missing funds. Thanks for letting us know!

malcmur   •   Thu Oct 16 2014 at 12:15pm PDT

Hi, question on this one: did the uh oh feature close at the right time? I made a trade at 8pm on Oct 15th, which has now been refunded. Shouldn’t that have been pre-uh oh close?
Thanks,
Malcolm

just_the_inklings   •   Thu Oct 16 2014 at 12:20pm PDT

I must of messed up. I set the time to 2 a.m. but maybe it defaulted the day to the 15th and not the 16th. I’ll try and re-do (I’ve never tried doing so before, so, fingers crossed).

malcmur   •   Wed Oct 29 2014 at 01:38pm PDT

Hey, it didn’t work to redo, did it? Perhaps it’s not doable.

Thanks,
Malcolm

BeteNoire   •   Wed Oct 29 2014 at 01:58pm PDT

I had some trades that got reversed, but it looks to me like they got reversed twice.

malcmur   •   Wed Oct 29 2014 at 02:01pm PDT

Weird. I have no reversed trades on this one.

just_the_inklings   •   Wed Oct 29 2014 at 02:21pm PDT

I redid it a couple weeks ago, moving the date to the right day. If that didn’t fix it I’m not sure what’s wrong. Sorry.

BeteNoire   •   Wed Oct 29 2014 at 03:26pm PDT

I had some trades that were reversed when you put it in the first time. I believe that got reversed again when you put it in the second time, which I have been trying to get the inkling administrator to examine because the second time created a big loss, I think. I could be wrong, but I think there may be an accounting glitch in the system.

malcmur   •   Wed Oct 29 2014 at 02:23pm PDT

Ok, thanks, thought it would reverse, but no worries.

lenlesmac   •   Thu Oct 16 2014 at 04:07am PDT

Correction $1,195.50 not $1,995.50

lenlesmac   •   Thu Oct 16 2014 at 04:03am PDT

ounsal   •   Wed Sep 10 2014 at 06:17am PDT

TODAY 9/10/2014
TOPIX 1,306.79
Nikkei 225 Vol Index 17.57 (AS A PROXY FOR TOPIX)
Duration 51 (DAYS LEFT UNTIL)
Drop Needed 8.17%
Expected Vol 6.57% (CALC FROM NIKKEI INDEX)
Norm.Dist 10.7% = PROBABILITY OF DROPPING BELOW 1200

Rationales

"Downward trend of markets, follows US"

Xu5ng!eb bought at 33.45%
October 15, 2014 @ 11:42pm PDT

"expect a settling out"

nonayubiz bought at 11.51%
September 27, 2014 @ 07:34am PDT

"Price seems stable and would need to lose 10 percent of its value in a little more than a month. This time last year had the market rising."

brandonkuhl sold at 17.08%
September 23, 2014 @ 09:47am PDT

"model"

ounsal sold at 25.51%
September 01, 2014 @ 05:46pm PDT

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historical trend

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