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Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the South China Sea before 1 June 2015?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Yes

(closed)

Predicted: 2.61%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

June 01, 2015 @ 05:33pm PDT

Predictions Made

55

Most by: Paul Theron (12 predictions)

Discussion

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Paul Theron   •   Mon Jun 01 2015 at 07:58pm PDT

Time is up, please close? Thanks.

lenlesmac   •   Mon Jun 01 2015 at 02:02am PDT

There is no evidence to date that that anything has changed. In fact: "[Admiral Sun Jianguo} said a decision on an ADIZ would be taken after an assessment of the security situation and taking “extensive factors” into consideration."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/31/us-asia-security-china-idUSKBN0OG02320150531

Reuters – 5/31/15

Rationales

"20% seems like the real probability."

fearofmimes bought at 19.10%
January 22, 2015 @ 10:38am PST

"The real likelihood is around 40% for me."

fearofmimes bought at 35.17%
November 07, 2014 @ 08:42am PST

"I believe the market is close to actual odds at 50%"

fearofmimes bought at 49.81%
November 05, 2014 @ 08:15pm PST

historical trend

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