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Will C.Y. Leung vacate the office of Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region before 1 November 2014?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Yes

(closed)

Predicted: 1.43%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

October 31, 2014 @ 08:59pm PDT

Predictions Made

33

Most by: job (5 predictions)

Discussion

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ulfelder   •   Fri Oct 24 2014 at 10:20am PDT

From today’s New York Times (here): “A Hong Kong lawmaker from a pro-business party that supports Beijing said Friday that the city’s chief executive, Leung Chun-ying, should consider resigning. It was the first time that a prominent member of the city’s business elite had openly called for Mr. Leung to step down after almost four weeks of pro-democracy demonstrations.”

ulfelder   •   Wed Oct 08 2014 at 04:31am PDT

According to a story in Australia’s The Age (here), C.Y. Leung “has pocketed millions in secret fees from a listed Australian company in return for supporting its Asian business ambitions.” The timing of this expose is interesting. It could be a coincidence or motivated by the newspaper’s own ambitions, but this could also be happening now with Chinese assistance as part of a plan to sacrifice Leung in order to maintain the peace in Hong Kong.

BeteNoire   •   Wed Oct 08 2014 at 05:28am PDT

do you think it likely to happen in the roughly three weeks left?

ulfelder   •   Wed Oct 08 2014 at 08:16am PDT

I thought it unlikely before this report. I still think it unlikely, but this report has increased my estimate of the event’s probability and made me more uncertain about my forecast.

BeteNoire   •   Sun Oct 05 2014 at 04:56pm PDT

Thanks. Interesting background. Thank you for your service to the country.

BeteNoire   •   Sun Oct 05 2014 at 01:33pm PDT

My first trade. Trying to figure out how this works. My opinion, the communist party cannot be seen to be caving in to civil disobedience.

SneakyPete   •   Sun Oct 05 2014 at 03:48pm PDT

Too luck in your future trades.

BeteNoire   •   Sun Oct 05 2014 at 04:56pm PDT

Meant to send the message above as a reply.

Rationales

"News that legislature will push for investigation of corruption allegations about Leung"

ulfelder bought at 21.09%
October 09, 2014 @ 03:27am PDT

"Xi cannot be seen to be weak"

Grok sold at 37.76%
October 07, 2014 @ 12:14am PDT

"Communists will not cave"

BeteNoire sold at 39.66%
October 05, 2014 @ 01:51pm PDT

"No way will he step down. Not the Main Land Chinese way."

SneakyPete sold at 50.00%
October 05, 2014 @ 11:11am PDT

historical trend

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