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Based upon closing prices during the quarter, will the S&P 500 experience a 10% decline any time during the first quarter of 2015?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Yes

(closed)

Predicted: 42.95%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

December 31, 2014 @ 11:59pm PST

Predictions Made

40

Most by: towstore (9 predictions)

Discussion

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BeteNoire   •   Tue Mar 31 2015 at 02:51pm PDT

greatest decline during the quarter was 3.64% between 3-2 and 3-11. Question is resolved as No.

BeteNoire   •   Mon Feb 02 2015 at 06:29am PST

The greatest percentage decline so far this quarter was 3.37% between 1-8 and 1-15. A new high was reached on 1-22.

BeteNoire   •   Sat Oct 25 2014 at 07:35pm PDT

The current price implies about a one in three chance. I don’t think the odds are that high. The last time it happened was 2011.

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Oct 14 2014 at 07:50am PDT

A decline this large has happened exactly once ever, in 1987: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_S%26P_500

I’m not saying it can’t happen in an upcoming 3 month window, but it probably won’t.

BeteNoire   •   Tue Oct 14 2014 at 08:11am PDT

I see you are looking at one day declines. The question does not specify a one day decline, just a decline during the quarter of at least 10%.

BeteNoire   •   Tue Oct 14 2014 at 08:07am PDT

I believe the S&P 500 dropped 17.27% in the third quarter of 2011 between 7-7-2011 and 8-8-2011.

BeteNoire   •   Tue Oct 14 2014 at 08:10am PDT

I suspect there were other times too.

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Oct 14 2014 at 10:50am PDT

Got it. Sorry—misread the question.

Rationales

"10% is too dramatic a shift"

amsiegel sold at 50.00%
October 12, 2014 @ 09:54am PDT

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
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