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January 02, 2015 @ 11:54am PST## Rationales

### "Epidemeology modeling is cool"

##### urbantwilight sold at 0.30%

##### November 12, 2014 @ 02:20pm PST

## historical trend

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## Background information

The mathematics of disease spread would say that the number of ebola cases double every 15 days if no intervention is made. That translates into a daily unfettered rate of infection of 4.7%. As of Oct 15, 2014 we have 2 cases in the USA caught in the USA. The math would predict 65 cases by Jan 1, 2015. Thus will we reach that number?

The implication is to get a gauge of how able the US health care system will be. If it is capable, the number will fall far short of 65 by Jan 1, 2015.

## Discussion

Sort by:Date## BeteNoire • Sun Jan 04 2015 at 02:01pm PST

can this be closed out please?

## stuckp1 • Fri Oct 24 2014 at 12:26pm PDT

Consulting my spreadsheet calculations, we are still on track, as a third case has been identified in New York. My spreadsheet predicted 3.02 cases by 24-OCT.

Mind you, at this stage, the number of cases in the US is small enough that “on track” doesn’t mean anything.

However, if we hit 8 cases by 16-Nov, and 20 cases by 6-Dec, then “on track” starts to become more meaningful, and ominous….

## stuckp1 • Wed Oct 15 2014 at 12:04pm PDT

Estimates of infection rates say that the number of ebola cases doubles every 15 days. That amounts to a daily infection rate of 4.7%, which compounded over 15 days = 200%. This means that, if we have the same odds as Liberia, we should see 65 cases in the USA by Jan 1, 2015. If the US health care system is better, then the “No” votes will far outnumber the “Yes” votes.