Inkling Public Site

Make a prediction

Spend money (inkles) to express what you think will happen.

Next

Wisdom of the crowd

Everyone's predictions are combined in to a single prediction.

Next

Judgment time

Were you right or were you wrong about your prediction?

Don't show this again

Will the number of Ebola cases originating in the U.S. reach 65 by January 1, 2015

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Yes

(closed)

Predicted: 0.07%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

January 02, 2015 @ 11:54am PST

Predictions Made

23

Most by: globaljason (6 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

BeteNoire   •   Sun Jan 04 2015 at 02:01pm PST

can this be closed out please?

stuckp1   •   Fri Oct 24 2014 at 12:26pm PDT

Consulting my spreadsheet calculations, we are still on track, as a third case has been identified in New York. My spreadsheet predicted 3.02 cases by 24-OCT.
Mind you, at this stage, the number of cases in the US is small enough that “on track” doesn’t mean anything.
However, if we hit 8 cases by 16-Nov, and 20 cases by 6-Dec, then “on track” starts to become more meaningful, and ominous….

stuckp1   •   Wed Oct 15 2014 at 12:04pm PDT

Estimates of infection rates say that the number of ebola cases doubles every 15 days. That amounts to a daily infection rate of 4.7%, which compounded over 15 days = 200%. This means that, if we have the same odds as Liberia, we should see 65 cases in the USA by Jan 1, 2015. If the US health care system is better, then the “No” votes will far outnumber the “Yes” votes.

Rationales

"Epidemeology modeling is cool"

urbantwilight sold at 0.30%
November 12, 2014 @ 02:20pm PST

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
Help
Ajax-loader