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Who will be the next President of the Philippines in 2016?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

BINAY Jejomar

(closed)

0.60%

CAYETANO, Alan

(closed)

0.00%

DEFENSOR-SANTIAGO Miriam

(closed)

3.16%

DRILON, Franklin

(closed)

0.00%

DUTERTE, Rodrigo

(closed)

95.16%

ESCUDERO, Francis

(closed)

0.00%

ESTRADA, Joseph

(closed)

0.05%

GORDON, Richard

(closed)

0.00%

LACSON, Ping

(closed)

0.00%

MARCOS, Ferdinand

(closed)

0.00%

PANGILINAN, Francis

(closed)

0.00%

POE, Grace

(closed)

0.49%

REVILLA, Ramon Jr

(closed)

0.00%

ROBREDO, Leni

(closed)

0.00%

ROXAS, Mar

(closed)

0.52%

No One In List

(closed)

0.00%

  • expired

Question ends

May 08, 2016 @ 08:59am PDT

Predictions Made

3694

Most by: job (174 predictions)

Discussion

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benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Jan 05 2016 at 09:19am PST

This question has been suspended. An equivalent question can be found on AlphaCast at: http://alphacast.cultivateforecasts.com/questions/263

job   •   Mon Oct 12 2015 at 12:28am PDT

Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte is running for president in 2016, his political adviser said Saturday.

- See more at: http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/540217/news/nation/duterte-will-run-for-president-adviser#sthash.ZJNny5AI.dpuf

GeneH   •   Mon Oct 12 2015 at 01:55am PDT

job   •   Mon Sep 28 2015 at 06:02am PDT

GeneH   •   Mon Sep 28 2015 at 06:10am PDT

Polls are few and far between but here is the latest one just out. This may be closer than everyone thinks. Another fun election to watch.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/725880/poe-leads-pulse-asia-poll-roxas-binay-duterte-tied-in-2nd-place

GeneH   •   Sun Sep 27 2015 at 10:12am PDT

job   •   Wed Sep 09 2015 at 02:48pm PDT

unregistered_user_!aSaez9a bought DUTERTE, Rodrigo at 4.51%

GeneH   •   Wed Sep 09 2015 at 04:01pm PDT

The filing deadline is mid October. Duterte is polling in 3rd place in the latest poll available and has lots of upside with voters. He is a viable candidate if he runs (again, from what little I have read and studied up on).

His price should be low now but if he decides to formally run I would put him up to 40% at least.

As I said before, i think the guy is a bit crazy so it would not surprise me to see him back track and decide to run.

job   •   Tue Sep 08 2015 at 07:32am PDT

GeneH, what makes you think Duarte will run for President??

GeneH   •   Tue Sep 08 2015 at 07:59am PDT

Also, I don’t know if you have been playing this question all along but I will make a side bet with you that “the manipulators” will still be here opening anonymous trading accounts and buying up “Duterte”.

job   •   Tue Sep 08 2015 at 08:08am PDT

In this question I only sold Duterte and NEVER bought one single share of Duterte. Now I am 4,560 short!

GeneH   •   Tue Sep 08 2015 at 08:15am PDT

LOL! Same here. I had, over time, accumulated about 1700 short shares and was down about 8,000 inklings. When I saw the price dive (assuming you did it!!), I got out with a generous “profit”—not the max, but I was happy.

The only “buy” I have is very small one (25 shares) I made today at the very low price. Just a hedge.

job   •   Tue Sep 08 2015 at 08:12am PDT

Strange that only us two are listed as players.

GeneH   •   Tue Sep 08 2015 at 08:22am PDT

Very odd. I have monitored this question several times a day. Most of the comments left on the “rationales” on a daily basis have been in favor of Duterte.

If we both have been selling relatively large amounts, I do find it strange the price has/had remained consistently so high (in my observation).

GeneH   •   Tue Sep 08 2015 at 07:55am PDT

I dont…maybe.

I have been following this one for a while—reading everyday Duterte’s comments and CONSTANTLY changing his mind. I have consistently bet against it when the price was in the high 90’s (just made a large “win” with this price correctioin today). As soon as I sold some, someone would buy (LOTS of “unregistered users” in on this question. I suspected manipulation (and reported it to Inkling)—who keeps buying when a stock is in the high 90’s? Made no sense. The question has not been properly priced, in my opinion.

However, at a low price, given Dutertes recent history and comments, he is likely to change his mind—-I think the guy is a socio-path (my opinion) so anything is possible. I am just playing the odds with this one.

Hope that makes sense.

job   •   Tue Sep 08 2015 at 07:32am PDT

“I am not running. I’m sorry,” Duterte said in a press conference.
Duterte added that he will “retire from public life for good” in 2016.
“I believe it’s no longer my time to be in politics,” he said.

Read more: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/719960/dutertes-final-answer-i-wont-run-for-president#ixzz3l9pmsDM7
Follow us: @inquirerdotnet on Twitter | inquirerdotnet on Facebook

GeneH   •   Tue Sep 08 2015 at 07:14am PDT

GeneH   •   Thu Jul 23 2015 at 05:40am PDT

I do not know much about the politics in the Philippines. However, it seems like Duterte is relatively firm about not seeking the Presidency but he always seems to say something that leaves the option open.

I do see lots of suggestions as of late that others want him to Vice President (Binay). The price of the this “stock” seems to stay very high relative to the information out there.

If anyone is more familiar with the current situation and would like to offer an opinion it would be appreciated.

Thanks!

valloyastee   •   Wed Oct 29 2014 at 12:09am PDT

BINAY SUITS AQUINO’S CRITERIA FOR SUCCESSORSPOKESMAN
via Rappler.Com at http://www.rappler.com/nation/73424-binay-fulfills-aquino-criteria

Now that President Benigno Aquino III has made it clear that a second term is not an option for him, it’s time to talk about the candidate he will endorse.

The camp of Vice President Jejomar Binay welcomed the statement of Aquino ruling out initiatives for a re-election bid and – in spite of allegations of corruption raised against him by critics – said Binay fulfills the criteria that Aquino set for his successor.

Aquino, in a speech on Tuesday, October 28, said that for the country to sustain its economic growth, it has to vote for the “right candidate.”

valloyastee   •   Tue Oct 28 2014 at 08:23pm PDT

GRACE POE: NO PLANS TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2016?

MANILA, Philippines–People should not read too much into her use of her father’s altanghap campaign line in her privilege speech on hunger, Sen. Grace Poe said on Tuesday, as she continued to be skittish when the topic of 2016 was brought up.

Poe insisted that she had no intention to run in the country’s next presidential election. “No plans at all,” she told reporters on Tuesday.

She said her use of altanghap, shorthand for almusal, tanghalian, hapunan (breakfast, lunch, dinner) should not be an issue.

In her privilege speech on Monday on the growing number of hungry Filipinos, Poe said that as her late father Fernando Poe Jr. had noted, altanghap remained the problem of ordinary citizens.

Read more: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/647470/poe-no-plans-to-run-for-president-in-16#ixzz3HV6BZQ1A

valloyastee   •   Tue Oct 28 2014 at 02:09am PDT

AQUINO SLAMS DOOR ON EXTENDED TERM AS PRESIDENT OF PH

MANILA, Philippines — Don’t count on President Benigno Aquino III attempting to secure a second term.

Aquino on Tuesday said he did not agree with groups calling for his re-election.

“Even there are some quarters that were saying I should try and go for a second term, I don’t think that’s a right solution,” he told members of the Semiconductor and Electronics Industries in the Philippines (Seipi) during their general meeting at The Peninsula Hotel in Makati City.

Read more: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/647370/aquino-says-2nd-term-not-the-right-solution#ixzz3HQeyhu1v

valloyastee   •   Mon Oct 27 2014 at 10:40pm PDT

GRACE POE AS AN ALTERNATIVE CANDIDATE TO BINAY?

MANILA, Philippines–“It’s possible” that Sen. Grace Poe is positioning herself as an alternative presidential candidate in 2016, noting the senator’s mention of “altanghap,” a campaign slogan associated with her late father Fernando Poe Jr. (FPJ), according to the independent Institute for Political and Electoral Reform (Iper).

During the 2004 presidential campaign, the elder Poe told an audience that agriculture was his priority agenda. He related that when asked by a foreigner what the main problems of the Filipinos were, he said he replied: “Almusal (breakfast), tanghalian (lunch), hapunan (dinner).”

Read more: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/647298/will-poe-be-alternative-to-binay#ixzz3HPoV0Qpe

valloyastee   •   Mon Oct 27 2014 at 10:38pm PDT

With the party now unsure about the chances of a certain member running for president in 2016, will Nacionalista Party president Manuel “Manny” Villar Jr. step up and agree to run again?

After a disappointing loss in 2010 where he had mounted a much hyped and costly campaign to be president, Villar has kept a low profile, focusing on running his real estate empire.

“So far, he has no plans yet,” said Villar’s spouse, Sen. Cynthia Villar, in a recent interview when asked if her husband would be taking another shot at the presidency.

“He’s very busy, he’s got a lot of work,” she said.

Manny Villar is chair of real estate firm Vista Land and Landscapes Inc., which has ventures in retailing, malls, hotels and condominiums.

Read more: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/647220/villar-too-busy-running-business-to-think-of-2016-polls-says-wife#ixzz3HPo0fyae

valloyastee   •   Tue Oct 21 2014 at 10:36pm PDT

BINAY SEES ROXAS HAND IN CAMPAIGNAGAINSTHIM

Vice President Jejomar Binay on Tuesday night accused Interior Secretary Mar Roxas, his potential rival in the 2016 presidential election, of having a hand in what he called was a smear campaign against him by former Makati City Vice Mayor Ernesto Mercado—the star witness in the ongoing Senate inquiry into corruption allegations against him.

On the eve of the resumption of the Senate inquiry, Binay accused Roxas as among those leading the so-called “Oplan Stop Nognog 2016,” a purported plot to derail the Vice President’s political plans.

And despite the political crisis he is now facing amid results of a recent Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey showing eight in 10 Filipinos wanted him to show up at the investigation of the Senate blue ribbon subcommittee, Binay made it clear he would not reconsider his presidential bid.

Read more: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/646106/veep-sees-roxas-hand-in-campaign-against-him#ixzz3Gqi7KoGM

valloyastee   •   Tue Oct 21 2014 at 07:18pm PDT

BOHOL MAYOR & MAR ROXAS

A day after scolding mayors in Bohol for being unprepared to implement rehabilitation projects despite the availability of funds, Local Government Secretary Manuel “Mar” Roxas II got an earful from one mayor who blamed the presumptive Liberal Party presidential candidate instead.

Roxas, said Maribojoc Mayor Leoncio Evasco Jr., “should not blame the mayors.”
Evasco was defending mayors of two other towns in Bohol—Clarin and Sagbayan—who were scolded by Roxas at a meeting of the provincial disaster risk reduction and management council here on Wednesday.

Roxas was angry at the mayors for failing to submit their programs of works and estimates that details how they planned to carry out rehabilitation plans.

Read more: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/645570/bohol-mayor-to-mar-roxas-scold-yourself#ixzz3GpuZF2Hf

valloyastee   •   Tue Oct 21 2014 at 07:16pm PDT

News updates: Binay gets formal invitation from the Senate blue ribbon committee

Vice President Jejomar Binay has been invited anew to face the allegations lodged against him–this time from the main Senate blue ribbon committee being headed by Senator Teofisto Guingona III.

Guingona formally asked Binay after the blue ribbon subcommittee resumed its hearing on the parking building controversy at around 9:30 a.m. on Wednesday.

Read more: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/646194/binay-gets-formal-invitation-from-the-senate-blue-ribbon-committee#ixzz3GptnMwbc

Rationales

"he is straightforward and I feel that the other presidentiables are not sincere"

unregistered_user_f$ee4Ahg bought DUTERTE, Rodrigo at 96.63%
January 05, 2016 @ 08:28am PST

"personal preference"

unregistered_user_Apah$fe6 bought DUTERTE, Rodrigo at 95.18%
January 04, 2016 @ 04:00am PST

"Siya ang Solusyon sa PAGBABAGO ng PILIPINAS."

unregistered_user_Ah#b5the bought DUTERTE, Rodrigo at 94.46%
January 03, 2016 @ 07:00pm PST

"He is the best leader"

unregistered_user_nCh#5yab bought DUTERTE, Rodrigo at 94.12%
January 03, 2016 @ 03:59am PST

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historical trend

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