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Will the total number of Ebola cases in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone reach 20,000 by the end of November?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Yes

(closed)

Predicted: 0.02%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

December 05, 2014 @ 05:12am PST

topic

Health

Predictions Made

74

Most by: job (16 predictions)

Discussion

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predictionmarketguy   •   Sun Dec 07 2014 at 01:28am PST

Unless Liberia reports 3,000 cases in the Nov. 29-30 period, this will end at no. As tempting as it is to close this, since we still have an infinitesimal chance of this hitting the 20k mark, I’ll leave it open until we know for sure.

ulfelder   •   Fri Nov 21 2014 at 03:23am PST

“The international response to West Africa’s Ebola epidemic, coupled with more effective action by local communities, has stopped the exponential spread of the disease in one of the hardest-hit countries, Liberia, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Thursday.” From this NYT story today.

predictionmarketguy   •   Fri Nov 21 2014 at 04:59am PST

Excellent quote. Do you have an opinion on whether Ebola will be fully contained in Liberia by June 2015? (The GJP has a question on that.)

ulfelder   •   Fri Nov 21 2014 at 08:03am PST

I don’t know enough about epidemiology to have a strong prior on that question, but whatever the prior, I would be revising that probability upwards in response to this news.

ulfelder   •   Thu Nov 20 2014 at 08:37am PST

14,383 as of November 11, per CDC update on November 14 (here).

ulfelder   •   Tue Nov 18 2014 at 05:29am PST

“Red Cross officials helping to lead the fight against Ebola in West Africa said Monday the virus is still spreading, and they’re having trouble recruiting health care workers to combat it…

Birte Hald, head of emergency operations for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, said that after a recent surge of optimism that the virus was coming under control, especially in Liberia, it ‘is flaring up in new villages, in new locations.’ On Monday, Hald said, a team of international experts was being set to Mali to assist that nation’s health authorities in stemming an outbreak of Ebola there.

‘Unfortunately, it doesn’t look as if we have bent the curve yet,’ said Hald, who heads the Red Cross federation’s anti-Ebola effort in Africa. ‘It is absolutely premature to start being optimistic.’"

See here for the whole story. As head of an organization struggling to fight the epidemic, this guy is motivated to overstate the threat. Even so, I think this report is evidence that the trajectory remains uncertain.

ulfelder   •   Thu Nov 13 2014 at 03:03am PST

Total cases at 14,068 as of 9 November, according to the CDC. If the rate of new cases more or less holds steady or continues to decline, the total will not reach 20,000 by 28 November, when we’ll see the last update before this question closes.

Hall of Shame   •   Fri Oct 31 2014 at 12:14pm PDT

As of the 31 October report: 1667 + 6535 + 5338 = 13541.

Hall of Shame   •   Fri Oct 31 2014 at 12:20pm PDT

The 1 October report had 7157 cases.
The 29 September report had 3052 cases.

Rationales

"The actual number will be closer to 16,000"

urbantwilight sold at 4.03%
November 12, 2014 @ 02:24pm PST

"Hearing word of a sharp uptick in daily case rate in Liberia"

ulfelder bought at 3.66%
November 12, 2014 @ 12:47pm PST

"BBC: "Officials have told me they now expect the figure to stick at around 1,000 fresh cases each week.""

predictionmarketguy sold at 80.16%
November 02, 2014 @ 08:21am PST

"Up to 13,703 as of Oct 27, says WHO"

ulfelder bought at 65.39%
October 29, 2014 @ 01:26pm PDT

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