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2014 Mid-Term Elections Props (Please review background section for more info).

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Will Dems defeat 2 or more Rep Senators?

(closed)

Predicted: 17.37%

Actual: 0.00%

Will Dems hold 195 or more seats in the US House?

(closed)

Predicted: 42.17%

Actual: 0.00%

Will Dems hold 46 or more Senate seats?

(closed)

Predicted: 66.56%

Actual: 0.00%

Will the Dems defeat 4 or more Rep Governors?

(closed)

Predicted: 52.10%

Actual: 0.00%

Will Reps hold 53 or more seats in the US Senate?

(closed)

Predicted: 52.00%

Actual: 100.00%

Will the Reps defeat 4 or more Dem Governors?

(closed)

Predicted: 53.00%

Actual: 100.00%

Will Reps hold 238 or more seats in the US House?

(closed)

Predicted: 81.46%

Actual: 100.00%

Will any US Senate race be won by >30%?

(closed)

Predicted: 93.71%

Actual: 100.00%

Will any Senate races be won by <1.0%?

(closed)

Predicted: 78.25%

Actual: 100.00%

Will 2 or more US Senate races require run-offs to be held?

(closed)

Predicted: 28.10%

Actual: 0.00%

Will Senate control be known on 5 Nov?

(closed)

Predicted: 71.18%

Actual: 100.00%

Will 2 or more US Senate races require a recount?

(closed)

Predicted: 35.90%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

October 31, 2014 @ 09:59pm PDT

Predictions Made

126

Most by: SneakyPete (34 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

SneakyPete   •   Thu Nov 06 2014 at 06:23pm PST

Republicans picked up 4 Governor Houses (AR, Ill, MA, & MD) in this midterm election.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2014/results/governor?utm_source=top_nav&amp;utm_medium=web&amp;utm_campaign=election-2014

mvguy   •   Thu Oct 30 2014 at 08:48am PDT

Good job in creating the market!

SneakyPete   •   Thu Oct 30 2014 at 09:20am PDT

Thanks.

SneakyPete   •   Sun Oct 26 2014 at 11:35am PDT

It appears that Colorado will be a prime candidate for a vote recount and validation of voters. The Democratic passed “100%” absentee ballot mail out will probably lead to fraudulent voter ballots being casted. We shall see.

chelseaboys   •   Thu Oct 23 2014 at 12:15pm PDT

I think you meant 238 house seats for Reps, since they already hold 233 to the D 199. Too late to switch that now, I guess.

Or did you mean that incumbents will hold on to 138 of the 233 they have?

SneakyPete   •   Thu Oct 23 2014 at 12:51pm PDT

Correct 238 or more seats. I have corrected the question to read 238+.

chelseaboys   •   Thu Oct 23 2014 at 12:10pm PDT

Thanks for the props, Sneaky; but, it was philculp’s Super Bowl props that I took over that started it all.

For the last one, do you mean EXACTLY 2 senate recounts, or 2 OR MORE recounts?

SneakyPete   •   Thu Oct 23 2014 at 12:46pm PDT

2 or more. Could not fit “or more” into the space for the question. Thanks for the comments.

chelseaboys   •   Thu Oct 23 2014 at 01:03pm PDT

I’ve found that those “characters remaining” warnings just disappear when you go over and your entire message is included.

SneakyPete   •   Thu Oct 23 2014 at 02:09pm PDT

Thanks. I will try and see if it works. It works…..

Rationales

"Am sure we will see a number of "November Surprises on election day."

SneakyPete bought Will 2 or more US Senate races require run-offs to be held? at 22.45%
October 31, 2014 @ 06:51pm PDT

"arbitrage"

wankelmeier sold Will Reps hold 53 or more seats in the US Senate? at 54.00%
October 25, 2014 @ 07:40am PDT

"Wven if LA & GA have runoffs Repubs will have enough seats to control the Senate."

SneakyPete bought Will Senate control be known on 5 Nov? at 49.91%
October 23, 2014 @ 06:03pm PDT

historical trend

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