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Which of Africa's longest-serving leaders will vacate office next?

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December 31, 2020 @ 09:00am PST

Predictions Made

37

Most by: ulfelder (13 predictions)

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benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Jan 05 2016 at 10:15am PST

This market has been suspended. To forecast similar questions, please visit http://alphacast.cultivateforecasts.com

ulfelder   •   Mon Nov 24 2014 at 03:21am PST

Talk that Zimbabwe’s military may “forcibly retire” Mugabe ahead of next week’s ZANU-PF party congress to prevent his wife from succeeding him (see here). This kind of talk is standard fare for Zimbabwe, but it does underscore the uncertainty associated with the congress and ensuing leadership transition, so I am going a little longer on Mugabe.

ulfelder   •   Fri Nov 14 2014 at 11:36am PST

Deep look at Chad under Deby in World Politics Review (here) describes a brittle regime kept whole by oil money and international support, calls out 2016 presidential election as a vulnerable spot for the incumbent.

wstritt   •   Fri Nov 14 2014 at 04:26pm PST

Lots of older guys on the list though.

Rationales

"Trip to South Africa"

ulfelder bought Omar al-Bashir at 13.62%
June 14, 2015 @ 03:49am PDT

"Just named AU president; could be soft landing spot for him."

ulfelder bought Robert Mugabe at 26.33%
January 30, 2015 @ 12:36pm PST

"Talk of forcible retirement by military to keep his wife from succeeding him"

ulfelder bought Robert Mugabe at 24.07%
November 24, 2014 @ 03:22am PST

"Relatively high coup risk"

ulfelder bought Yoweri Museveni at 11.41%
November 02, 2014 @ 02:19am PST

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Idriss Deby

Jose Eduardo dos Santos

King Mswati III

Omar al-Bashir

Paul Biya

Robert Mugabe

Teodoro Obiang

Yoweri Museveni