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Which state will have the closest (by percentage) U.S. Senate race in the Nov. 4, 2014, elections?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Alaska

(closed)

Predicted: 16.50%

Actual: 0.00%

Arkansas

(closed)

Predicted: 0.31%

Actual: 0.00%

Colorado

(closed)

Predicted: 0.36%

Actual: 0.00%

Georgia

(closed)

Predicted: 0.52%

Actual: 0.00%

Iowa

(closed)

Predicted: 17.88%

Actual: 0.00%

Kansas

(closed)

Predicted: 5.50%

Actual: 0.00%

Kentucky

(closed)

Predicted: 0.10%

Actual: 0.00%

Louisiana

(closed)

Predicted: 23.18%

Actual: 0.00%

New Hampshire

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

North Carolina

(closed)

Predicted: 33.77%

Actual: 0.00%

Any state not listed

(closed)

Predicted: 1.84%

Actual: 100.00%

  • completed

Question ends

November 04, 2014 @ 07:16pm PST

Predictions Made

63

Most by: bobdevine (25 predictions)

Discussion

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mvguy   •   Tue Nov 04 2014 at 09:00pm PST

It’s looking now like the closest state will be Virginia or Louisiana. I’ll cash out the market as figures become available.

bobdevine   •   Tue Nov 04 2014 at 09:11pm PST

Wow! You might need a calculator with lots of power to figure out the closest. With votes still uncounted in both states, the difference in the two races is ver-r-r-ry small. Fun question!

What happens for a tie?

mvguy   •   Tue Nov 04 2014 at 09:50pm PST

Since I can take things to as many decimal points as necessary, a tie is not likely. We’ll see.

Rationales

"Great market!!!!!"

SneakyPete sold Arkansas at 8.37%
October 30, 2014 @ 03:43pm PDT

historical trend

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