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Which will be the top 20 films of 2015 at the domestic box office?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

019. San Andreas ($155.2M)

(closed)

98.89%

020. Mad Max: Fury Road ($153.6M)

(closed)

99.49%

027. Creed (~$103.5 as of 1/3)

(closed)

0.21%

113. Hateful 8 (~$13.3M as of 1/3)

(closed)

0.05%

997+. Next unlisted film to reach $100M

(closed)

0.10%

998+. Following unlisted $100M film

(closed)

0.11%

999.+ "Wild card" unlisted film

(closed)

0.41%

zz- Alvin and the Chipmunks: Road Chip

(closed)

Predicted: 0.19%

Actual: 0.00%

zz- Ant-Man

(closed)

Predicted: 99.96%

Actual: 100.00%

zz- Avengers: Age of Ultron

(closed)

Predicted: 99.95%

Actual: 100.00%

zz- Chappie

(closed)

Predicted: 0.98%

Actual: 0.00%

zz- Cinderella

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

zz- Fantastic Four

(closed)

Predicted: 3.63%

Actual: 0.00%

zz- Fifty Shades of Grey

(closed)

Predicted: 99.97%

Actual: 100.00%

zz- Furious 7

(closed)

Predicted: 99.84%

Actual: 100.00%

zz- Get Hard

(closed)

Predicted: 0.05%

Actual: 0.00%

zz- Home

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

zz- Hot Tub Time Machine 2

(closed)

Predicted: 1.12%

Actual: 0.00%

zz- Hotel Transylvania 2

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

zz- Inside Out

(closed)

Predicted: 99.91%

Actual: 100.00%

zz- Insurgent

(closed)

Predicted: 0.01%

Actual: 0.00%

zz- Jupiter Ascending

(closed)

Predicted: 0.03%

Actual: 0.00%

zz- Jurassic World

(closed)

Predicted: 97.85%

Actual: 100.00%

zz- Kingsman: The Secret Service

(closed)

Predicted: 0.09%

Actual: 0.00%

zz- Magic Mike XXL

(closed)

Predicted: 0.92%

Actual: 0.00%

zz- Minions

(closed)

Predicted: 99.37%

Actual: 100.00%

zz- Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation

(closed)

Predicted: 99.74%

Actual: 100.00%

zz- Mortdecai

(closed)

Predicted: 0.52%

Actual: 0.00%

zz- Paddington

(closed)

Predicted: 0.05%

Actual: 0.00%

zz- Pan

(closed)

Predicted: 2.61%

Actual: 0.00%

zz- Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2

(closed)

Predicted: 0.03%

Actual: 0.00%

zz- Pitch Perfect 2

(closed)

Predicted: 99.97%

Actual: 100.00%

zz- Spectre

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

zz- Spy

(closed)

Predicted: 0.04%

Actual: 0.00%

zz- Star Wars: The Force Awakens

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

zz- Straight Outta Compton

(closed)

Predicted: 99.92%

Actual: 100.00%

zz- Taken 3

(closed)

Predicted: 0.23%

Actual: 0.00%

zz- Ted 2

(closed)

Predicted: 2.75%

Actual: 0.00%

zz- Terminator: Genisys

(closed)

Predicted: 6.67%

Actual: 0.00%

zz- The Good Dinosaur

(closed)

Predicted: 1.17%

Actual: 0.00%

zz- The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

zz- The Jungle Book

(closed)

Predicted: 1.05%

Actual: 0.00%

zz- The Martian

(closed)

Predicted: 99.94%

Actual: 100.00%

zz- The Peanuts Movie

(closed)

Predicted: 0.21%

Actual: 0.00%

zz- The SpongeBob Movie: Out of Water

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

zz- Tomorrowland

(closed)

Predicted: 0.04%

Actual: 0.00%

zz- Trainwreck

(closed)

Predicted: 0.13%

Actual: 0.00%

zz- Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death

(closed)

Predicted: 0.87%

Actual: 0.00%

  • expired

Question ends

March 31, 2016 @ 07:00am PDT

Predictions Made

761

Most by: sflicht (184 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Jan 05 2016 at 10:15am PST

This market has been suspended. To forecast similar questions, please visit http://alphacast.cultivateforecasts.com

sflicht   •   Sun Jan 03 2016 at 06:24pm PST

I think 998+ should be Creed?

mvguy   •   Sun Jan 03 2016 at 07:07pm PST

That film was totally off my radar. Thanks!

sflicht   •   Tue Nov 03 2015 at 06:20am PST

Pretty sure the probabilities are logically inconsistent right now.

Judging by the UK box office, Spectre is fairly priced at ~100%. That leaves six slots for 8 films: SpongeBob, Compton, Transylvania, San Andreas, Dinosaur, Peanuts, Max, and Hateful Eight. So it’s correct that SpongeBob and Compton are virtually certain to qualify, and their prices reflect that, since of the five already released titles, those are among the top three. But one more is also a lock, Transylvania. (In fact, Transylvania seems likely to pass Compton and probably also SpongeBob in the next few weeks.) So Transylvania should be ~100% as well. (Subtract a bit for the chance that Transylvania DOESN’T pass Compton AND that Alvin and the Chipmunks surprises as a sleeper hit, but that’s pretty unlikely!) So 18 slots seem quite clear cut. (There is a tiny tiny chance that Joy will be a smash hit, but going up against Star Wars over the holiday season I doubt it will be top 20, even though it will get a bunch of Oscar nominations.)

For the last three slots we have five films: San Andreas, Mad Max, Dinosaur, Peanuts, and Hateful Eight. Their odds currently sum to 85 + 72 + 57 + 50 + 50 = 314%. And that’s not even counting the chance of Alvin or Joy coming out of left field.

So which are overvalued? I think San Andreas and Mad Max! http://pro.boxoffice.com/statistics/long_term_predictions gives forecasts of $195M+ for both Dinosaur and Peanuts. Perhaps other forecasters are more pessimistic, but Pixar tends to be box office gold, and many point to Peanuts’ nostalgia factor. On the other hand, since they’re being released a few weeks apart, Dinosaur could cut into Peanuts’ legs with the kiddie audience.

mvguy   •   Tue Nov 03 2015 at 10:58am PST

Although I think such a high forecast for Peanut isn’t justified, I agree with you that there’s strong inconsistency in this market. It’s too bad there isn’t some way to keep this going until next year.

sflicht   •   Sat Oct 17 2015 at 07:32am PDT

Trainwreck closed on 10/15 according to Box Office Mojo; it’s #21 currently, so I think that answer should be closed.

mvguy   •   Sat Oct 17 2015 at 08:52am PDT

Got it. Since the announcement regarding the pending demise of this market, I’ll probably be updating on weekends only.

sflicht   •   Tue Oct 13 2015 at 07:26pm PDT

I think Trainwreck can be closed, although maybe one should technically wait until it leaves the last few theaters in which it is playing.

sflicht   •   Sat Oct 03 2015 at 03:54pm PDT

At my $20 3D matinee screening of the Martian in midtown Manhattan this afternoon, the theater was packed and the audience was rapt. After an $18M Friday, forecasts that it will beat Gravity’s $55M October opening record don’t seem outlandish. (And a best-actor nomination for Damon also seems quite possible.)

All the technicals suggest that Transylvania 2 is on track for $155M or so, and Dinosaur could easily be a blockbuster (although perhaps Chloe’s more restrained forecast will turn out to be correct). So I think it is San Andreas and Mad Max that are now the most overpriced contracts here.

Side note: it’s virtually impossible that Compton and San Andreas can switch ranks at this point, so there was a straight-up $4 arb to trade away — until JUST NOW — with possibly huge upside .

mvguy   •   Sun Oct 04 2015 at 11:48am PDT

As of now, we have 22 films priced at $50 or above (counting those already cashed out), meaning there are at least two films that are overpriced. Last year the #20 film grossed just over $150M; it looks like that number might be higher this year.

sflicht   •   Sat Oct 03 2015 at 04:08pm PDT

Other things I learned from the previews:

1) Joy is a probable Oscar contender, repeating David Russell’s recipe J-Law + B-Coop + Serious Drama = Oscar nomination. But that recipe has never resulted in more than $150MM domestic gross.

2) The Revenant’s release date has been moved up to Christmas, so this Leo DiCaprio vehicle could in theory be a wildcard contender. But it looks to be a bleak and depressing Western, and even when those are successful (viz. No Country for Old Men), they don’t make the top 20.

3) Guillermo del Toro has an awesome looking horror movie starring the wonderful Mia Wasikowska as well as Martian co-star Chastain, coming out in a couple of weeks. But horror in general, and del Toro in particular, aren’t known for producing blockbusters, so it’s unlike to affect forecasting here.

ChloeBurns   •   Wed Sep 23 2015 at 10:20am PDT

FYI, The Jungle Book is now scheduled for release on 4/15/16.

mvguy   •   Sat Oct 03 2015 at 12:31pm PDT

Thanks! Cashed out at $0.

sflicht   •   Mon Aug 31 2015 at 06:47am PDT

Anyone want to suggest domestic gross predictions for Martian, Dinosaur, and Hateful 8? I’m at $160M or so for Compton.

ChloeBurns   •   Mon Aug 31 2015 at 07:10am PDT

My current estimates for the remainder of the year are:

TITLE MIN MAX
Star Wars 7 421.6 546.9
Hunger Games 4 344.7 447.2
The Martian 149.2 193.5
Straight Outta Compton 148.3 163.9
The Good Dinosaur 147.5 191.4
The Hateful 8 104.2 135.2
Maze Runner 2 104.0 134.9
Hotel Transylvania 2 102.4 132.9
The Peanuts Movie 77.0 99.9

mvguy   •   Mon Aug 31 2015 at 11:53am PDT

I don’t know about all of those, but I agree that the market has The Hateful Eight overpriced.

sflicht   •   Mon Aug 31 2015 at 07:50am PDT

That Dinosaur estimate is very low compared to others I’ve seen (and very low by historical Pixar standards). Is it because of the delayed release / rewrites?

sflicht   •   Thu Aug 13 2015 at 07:50am PDT

Prospects for Straight Outta Compton to surprise on the upside? I’ve seen $140M forecasts, but if it opens stronger than expected is $160M outside of the question?

mvguy   •   Thu Aug 13 2015 at 08:44am PDT

I’ve seen some forecasts for an opening weekend of $55 million. I don’t think it will be that high, but I’ve been wrong before. If it is that high, then the question becomes whether it or Trainwreck will reach $100 million first. My money would be on Trainwreck, since it seem to be holding up surprisingly well.

sflicht   •   Thu Aug 13 2015 at 09:52am PDT

I agree about Trainwreck.

mvguy   •   Wed Aug 19 2015 at 10:35am PDT

It’s looking now like Trainwreck will reach the mark a day ahead of Compton.

ChloeBurns   •   Fri Jul 24 2015 at 03:12pm PDT

Pixels’ results will be at the bottom end of the range. Current estimates put it at $97.3mil – $126mil. My intuition is even that is too high.

mvguy   •   Sat Jul 25 2015 at 09:48am PDT

That’s not what you said three weeks ago! I too am surprised it seems to be faring so poorly.

ChloeBurns   •   Sat Jul 25 2015 at 10:05am PDT

Yup. I was wrong. Adam Sandler is no longer critic proof.

ChloeBurns   •   Thu Jun 04 2015 at 03:10pm PDT

Interest in Pixels appears to be strong and growing. It is guaranteed to qualify with $100mil+ in box office. Different models show different results for totals, however, with numbers ranging from $110 mil to almost $200mil.

ChloeBurns   •   Sun May 17 2015 at 01:43pm PDT

Spy is not looking as good as I originally thought. It may not even qualify for this market. My projection for total box office is $90mil to $119mil.

mvguy   •   Sat Jun 13 2015 at 08:11pm PDT

And the dinosaurs made almost as much on their first day (counting Thursday night) as “Spy” will make total. I knew “Jurassic World” would do well, but I didn’t expect that well.

ChloeBurns   •   Thu May 14 2015 at 07:00am PDT

Pitch Perfect 2 will qualify as the next unlisted film. It will open north of $50mil this weekend and gross between $146mil and $182mil. Spy will qualify as well. I will post estimated grosses next week.

mvguy   •   Thu May 14 2015 at 09:14am PDT

I don’t think “PP2” will earn that much, but I’d be shocked if it doesn’t pass $100 million.

ChloeBurns   •   Sun May 17 2015 at 07:52am PDT

Current estimates for opening weekend are $70mil+. I made a lot of money in this game buying sequel 2 and selling sequel 3. The first often capitalizes on good will from the original and the second often suffers from the fact that the sequel just isn’t as good as the first one.

mvguy   •   Sun May 17 2015 at 03:59pm PDT

It looks like you were on target. In three days, the sequel has already passed the original.

sflicht   •   Thu May 28 2015 at 08:47am PDT

And the reviews I’ve seen suggest that PP2 << PP1 in terms of quality, so PP3’s prospects don’t seem great if Chloe’s strategy is to be believed. :)

Rationales

"With $80M+ on opening day, of course it'll be among the top movies of the year."

mvguy bought zz- Jurassic World at 96.70%
June 13, 2015 @ 05:12pm PDT

"Opening day was weak."

mvguy sold zz- Tomorrowland at 63.46%
May 23, 2015 @ 10:46am PDT

historical trend

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997+. Next unlisted film to reach $100M

998+. Following unlisted $100M film

999.+ "Wild card" unlisted film