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Which country will be the first to default on its sovereign debt before 2017?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Croatia

(closed)

4.58%

Egypt

(closed)

4.76%

Greece

(closed)

16.81%

Japan

(closed)

4.59%

Portugal

(closed)

3.07%

Russia

(closed)

4.58%

Ukraine

(closed)

7.11%

Venezuela

(closed)

40.53%

Other

(closed)

5.59%

None

(closed)

8.34%

  • expired

Question ends

December 31, 2016 @ 04:00pm PST

Predictions Made

87

Most by: bobdevine (31 predictions)

Discussion

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benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Jan 05 2016 at 10:15am PST

This market has been suspended. To forecast similar questions, please visit http://alphacast.cultivateforecasts.com

BeteNoire   •   Fri Jan 01 2016 at 03:50pm PST

China will bailout Venezuela, but no one is going to bail out Greece.

BeteNoire   •   Sat Dec 19 2015 at 09:25am PST

I assert that China will prop up Venezuela, but no one will prop up Greece. I would be interested to hear contradictory arguments.

BeteNoire   •   Sat Oct 03 2015 at 07:53am PDT

Nooseybear, if there is debt forgiveness in Greece like there was in 2012, will that count as a default?

BeteNoire   •   Mon Aug 10 2015 at 07:01am PDT

Nooseybear, if there is debt forgiveness like there was in 2012, will that count as a default?

BeteNoire   •   Mon Aug 10 2015 at 07:02am PDT

In Greece I should have said.

Nooseybear   •   Tue Jul 07 2015 at 04:25pm PDT

Hello all, apologies for my absence.

Although Greece has failed to repay the IMF on time it is technically only in default if the borrower declares the lender to be in default. The IMF has chosen not to declare Greece to be in default but rather ‘in arrears’. Furthermore rating agencies have stated that they do not consider this non-payment to be a default, and I believe that payouts on CDSs have not been triggered nor will there be cross defaults on government bonds as the IMF loan is a bilateral agreement.

Thus I have decided to keep the market open until one of the events listed above occurs. It shouldn’t be too long anyway.

BeteNoire   •   Wed Jul 08 2015 at 06:06am PDT

I am admittedly struggling with fuzzy definitions of default. A few questions:
Has the IMF ever called a default on its debt a default or is the word they always use arrears?
When Greece reneged on its debt in 2012 did the ISDA determine that was a default for CDS purposes?
If not, then I would argue that neither of those standards is a sensible definition of default.

BeteNoire   •   Tue Jul 07 2015 at 03:32pm PDT

Noosey hasn’t logged on since May.

BeteNoire   •   Tue Jul 07 2015 at 02:24pm PDT

Noosey, please explain your definition of default. I agree with Bob, Greece has defaulted to Imf.

bobdevine   •   Tue Jul 07 2015 at 02:16pm PDT

“When borrowers — whether they are countries, companies or individuals — do not pay their debts on time, they are in default. For practical purposes, then, Greece — which on Tuesday failed to make a scheduled debt repayment of about 1.5 billion euros, or $1.7 billion, to the International Monetary Fund — has defaulted.

The I.M.F., however, does not use the term default. It instead places countries that miss their payments in what it calls arrears.

Semantics aside, missing the payment might lead to a situation in which other large Greek debts are classified as being in default."
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/business/international/greece-debt-crisis-euro.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=1

BeteNoire   •   Tue Jul 07 2015 at 03:30pm PDT

I agree. Just look up the word default. When you don’t pay a debt when it is due, then you have defaulted. In this case the imf loan is a sovereign debt of Greece’s.

bobdevine   •   Wed Jul 01 2015 at 11:41am PDT

“Greece became the first developed country to default…”
http://www.wsj.com/articles/some-greek-banks-to-open-for-pensioners-1435653433

ChloeBurns   •   Sun May 24 2015 at 06:09am PDT

In the absence of other guidelines, I propose using the ISDA determination, i.e., if real money credit default swap contracts become payable then this contract becomes payable.

BeteNoire   •   Sat Jan 31 2015 at 07:39am PST

How do you define default? If they do not meet all original contractual terms?

Rationales

"way"

aK8!fftu bought Egypt at 8.85%
January 01, 2015 @ 01:06am PST

historical trend

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