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Based upon closing prices during the quarter, will the S&P 500 experience a 10% decline any time during the second quarter of 2015?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Yes

(closed)

Predicted: 5.91%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

March 30, 2015 @ 11:59pm PDT

Predictions Made

58

Most by: towstore (11 predictions)

Discussion

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millerlogan   •   Thu May 07 2015 at 11:58am PDT

rswansen, shouldn’t this question have closed by now? Thanks

BeteNoire   •   Thu May 07 2015 at 01:14pm PDT

Trading closed prior to the start of the second quarter. The question is about the second quarter which ends at the end of June, and there has been no decline so far during the second quarter of 10% or more. You have to make your bet before the quarter starts, then see what happens during the quarter. I have an open question currently applying to the third quarter.

BeteNoire   •   Thu Feb 12 2015 at 07:36am PST

As a point of reference, the greatest decline in the 1st quarter 2015 so far was 3.37% between 1-8 and 1-15. A new high was reached on 2-10. Note – this comment refers to the first quarter. This question is about the second quarter.

Rationales

"Second quarter is ripe for weakness."

DariusX bought at 6.14%
March 29, 2015 @ 11:11am PDT

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
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