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How many cases of measles will the CDC report for the USA in 2015?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

500 to 1,000

(closed)

0.09%

Over 1,000

(closed)

0.09%

Under 500

(closed)

99.82%

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Question ends

December 31, 2015 @ 04:57am PST

topic

Health

Predictions Made

30

Most by: malcmur (6 predictions)

Discussion

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Trevor   •   Thu Jun 18 2015 at 01:30pm PDT

159 cases on April 2 (http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6414a1.htm) vs 173 on May 29 (http://www.cdc.gov/measles/cases-outbreaks.html) — 14 new cases in approx. two months. At that rate, about 50 new cases for a total of 223 or so would be the outcome.

GeneH   •   Mon Jun 22 2015 at 04:40am PDT

Just to add, according to the CDC at the link below, 111 of the 2015 first quarter cases are related to the outbreak in California at the end of 2014.

So if you consider that an isolated event (assumption) then the rate of infection is much lower and absent another major outbreak the numbers should go back to the previous trend again.

Never say never, but I dont project the total to go anywhere near 500.

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6414a1.htm

historical trend

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