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What will be the domestic weekend box office total for Fifty Shades of Grey on February 13 - 15, 2015?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

$0 to $19,999,999

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

$20,000,000 to $29,999,999

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

$30,000,000 to $39,999,999

(closed)

Predicted: 0.37%

Actual: 0.00%

$40,000,000 to $49,999,999

(closed)

Predicted: 1.65%

Actual: 0.00%

$50,000,000 to $59,999,999

(closed)

Predicted: 0.37%

Actual: 0.00%

$60,000,000 to $69,999,999

(closed)

Predicted: 0.38%

Actual: 0.00%

$70,000,000 to $79,999,999

(closed)

Predicted: 0.88%

Actual: 0.00%

$80,000,000 to $89,999,999

(closed)

Predicted: 85.97%

Actual: 100.00%

$90,000,000 to $99,999,999

(closed)

Predicted: 9.11%

Actual: 0.00%

$100,000,000 or more

(closed)

Predicted: 1.23%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

February 15, 2015 @ 10:59pm PST

Predictions Made

92

Most by: just_the_inklings (22 predictions)

Discussion

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chelseaboys   •   Mon Feb 16 2015 at 06:01am PST

Well I don’t have anything to cite, I believe those extended weekends are always part of the first weekend box office.

lecufr   •   Mon Feb 16 2015 at 06:14am PST

Right, I think it may be implied but usually not expressly stated except when there’s a long holiday weekend involved. Just based on my experiences with Box Office Mojo, they express the totals as a three- day amount and don’t separate out whatever portion is attributed to Thursday night ticket sales.

wstritt   •   Mon Feb 16 2015 at 04:38am PST

Not to nitpick but, per Boxofficeguru.com “The record weekend began on Friday with a colossal $30.3M including $8.6M from Thursday night pre-shows starting at 8pm.”. Excluding the February 12th box office, the Feb 13-15th total was only $73MM.

Sorry, I took your question literally and traded accordingly.

lecufr   •   Mon Feb 16 2015 at 06:06am PST

As I stated upfront in “Background Information” for this market, I’m using Box Office Mojo’s information. No where on that site does it say that Friday’s totals included Thursday evening. Perhaps that is implied but it’s not explicitly stated, and the “Friday/Saturday/Sunday” configuration seems to be standard for the site. Furthermore, it appears to be standard for Inkling as well, except when otherwise indicated (e.g., four-day holiday weekends like Thanksgiving). Sorry you lost money but I’m standing by the declared winning amount.

wstritt   •   Mon Feb 16 2015 at 06:30am PST

Well, cash out terms not quite as explicit as in mvguy’s versions of this sort of market (“This market will be settled based on the “weekend actuals” results for May 2-4, 2014, listed at Box Office Mojo.”

But my own fault – I should have asked for clarification given difference in wording.

lecufr   •   Mon Feb 16 2015 at 07:13am PST

If the actual box office totals end up being outside of the $80 – $89.9 million range I’ll undo the cash out and make the appropriate correction.

Rationales

"Early indications such as advance ticket sales and overseas sales suggest very strong numbers."

DeepValue sold $30,000,000 to $39,999,999 at 30.25%
February 12, 2015 @ 03:01pm PST

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
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