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Will Rahm Emanuel win 50%, or more, of votes for the Chicago mayoral runoff on April 7, 2015?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Yes

(closed)

Predicted: 99.98%

Actual: 100.00%

  • completed

Question ends

April 07, 2015 @ 03:00pm PDT

Predictions Made

64

Most by: BeteNoire (13 predictions)

Discussion

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BeteNoire   •   Thu Apr 09 2015 at 05:27am PDT

Can this be judged now?

kmcmorr (ADMIN)   •   Wed Feb 25 2015 at 08:44am PST

There are so many variables in this election. First, the city hasn’t seen a runoff for mayor so there isn’t a precedent as to how the election might turn out. Secondly, with almost record low voter turnout for yesterday’s election, there basically nowhere to go but up in terms of voter turnout. Whether that favors Emanuel or Chuy is yet to be known. Conventional wisdom would say higher voter turnout would favor the incumbent, and the better funded candidate, but as was demonstrated yesterday even a well funded candidate can face an uphill battle for that majority. It will be interesting.

Rationales

"Crime has gone up under Emanuel"

mcastillon sold at 57.94%
February 24, 2015 @ 11:45pm PST

historical trend

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