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Will each presidential candidate win the 2016 presidential election if nominated by a major party?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Hillary Clinton

(closed)

65.93%

Elizabeth Warren

(closed)

40.33%

Deval Patrick

(closed)

43.74%

Jeb Bush

(closed)

23.94%

Scott Walker

(closed)

0.97%

Rand Paul

(closed)

28.26%

Ted Cruz

(closed)

19.16%

Mike Huckabee

(closed)

22.10%

Marco Rubio

(closed)

36.17%

  • expired

Question ends

August 07, 2016 @ 09:46am PDT

Predictions Made

261

Most by: ChloeBurns (65 predictions)

Discussion

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benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Jan 05 2016 at 10:15am PST

This market has been suspended. To forecast similar questions, please visit http://alphacast.cultivateforecasts.com

chelseaboys   •   Mon Nov 02 2015 at 11:53am PST

Walker can be closed as he has withdrawn from the race.

ChloeBurns   •   Sun May 17 2015 at 05:40am PDT

The potential Democratic candidates are clustered around 65% and the potential Republican candidates are clustered around 33%. This market is telling us that, this early in the process, party is the only predictive factor and personality, ability and policy are irrelevant. Except for Ted Cruz.

MFWinAlford   •   Mon May 04 2015 at 06:30pm PDT

I happen to be very good friends with both Elizabeth and Deval. They both tell me they are not going to be running. So, there is no risk here to me betting on them because if they don’t, my money will be refunded. Very odd.

wstritt   •   Mon May 04 2015 at 06:35pm PDT

Other than tying up your inkles for a year for no reason. Sort of like running Mike Huckabee up to 100. No way he is nominated.

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Thu Feb 26 2015 at 03:27pm PST

Please be advised: trading on all but two of these stocks will eventually be refunded.

wstritt   •   Sat Feb 28 2015 at 07:03am PST

I suppose all of them could be refunded if none of them are nominated.

chelseaboys   •   Sat Feb 28 2015 at 04:52am PST

That’s a lot of waiting for nothing. Why not pay 0 to all that don’t become POTUS?

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Sat Feb 28 2015 at 08:33am PST

If we did that, the question would just be ‘will this person be elected president’.

The idea is to be able to compare candidates’ viability in a general election.

ChloeBurns   •   Tue Mar 03 2015 at 10:16am PST

The implied value is the price in this market divided by the price in this market.

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Fri Mar 06 2015 at 07:59am PST

Almost. There’s the (very) remote possibility that a candidate runs on a third-party ticket and wins, which would affect those markets but not this one.

I (mostly) used those two markets to set initial prices.

chelseaboys   •   Sat Feb 28 2015 at 08:45am PST

True; but still a long wait just to get your inkles back. ZZZzzz

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Sat Feb 28 2015 at 09:05am PST

Completely agree. Kind of an experimental question. I wouldn’t recommend investing very much if you’re light on cash.

SneakyPete   •   Sat Feb 28 2015 at 05:47am PST

Great point

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
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