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How many restaurant chains will announce using chicken raised without antibiotics* before September 1, 2015?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

1

(closed)

Predicted: 15.98%

Actual: 0.00%

2

(closed)

Predicted: 18.76%

Actual: 0.00%

3

(closed)

Predicted: 22.91%

Actual: 0.00%

4 or more

(closed)

Predicted: 20.32%

Actual: 0.00%

None

(closed)

Predicted: 22.02%

Actual: 100.00%

  • completed

Question ends

August 01, 2015 @ 09:00pm PDT

topic

Health

Predictions Made

39

Most by: GeneH (14 predictions)

Discussion

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GeneH   •   Wed Sep 02 2015 at 01:45pm PDT

As always something pops up to complicate things.

There is a story going around (seemed to originate from the link below) that quotes an “un-named” source/spokesperson with-in Subway that they are going anti-biotic free next year (out August 28th).

Doing as much due diligence as I can and making sure I paid attention to the words used, it appears this may be an internal leak (intentional or not) to the media.

I can find no press release from Subway or anyone from Subway to confirm or deny the story.

If they were coming out with this now I am certain it would have been shouted from the hilltops for publicity. Not sure this will count towards a company making the public committment to go anti-biotic free.

Just thought I would pass this along with my opinion. Thanks!

http://nrn.com/health-nutrition/subway-plans-shift-antibiotic-free-meat

kmcmorr (ADMIN)   •   Fri Sep 04 2015 at 12:00pm PDT

I can’t find anything with regards to a press release from Subway that would confirm the story so I am going to cash out “none” at 100. Thanks.

GeneH   •   Sat Aug 01 2015 at 05:31am PDT

Since the question closes tomorrow, I thought I would update what I know and anyone is welcome to add on to it.

Subway, Shake Shake and Wendys are the only significant chains (fast food, fast casual, etc) I can find that have committed to testing on a limited basis. Usually those tests are followed up with a period of assessment/evaluation. No one would committ to a full scale change right away after a test. So I do not see those companies implementing it before Sept.

Yum Brands committed to using less articial colors and some other additives a couple of months ago but did not extend that to antibiotics.

So far I cannot find any other articles suggesting any other companies are on the verge of doing so.

Only one month to go. If no one company has signalled any intentions (or no media leaks), it seems like the chances of it happening are very low at this point.

As mentioned below, Yums is a BIG variable. It has 3 companies attached to it. However, if they were to do something I think they would (1) test it first in one of the 3 on a limited basis or (2) even if they did committ seems like doing it in only one of their chains would be the thing they would do. Just to see how the logistics work. All 3 chains would be massive switch for them.

Just my thoughts. Again, additions are welcome. Thanks!

kmcmorr (ADMIN)   •   Mon Aug 17 2015 at 11:42am PDT

GeneH – Thanks for the info and sorry for the delay in responding. I concur with your assessment that any company entertaining the idea of using chicken w/o antibiotics would do so on a limited basis at first, so with our timeline what it is I think it a low chance at this point for any commitments to be made. In my research I found a few articles pertaining to the petitioning of Subway in Chicago – but not much else of note. Let’s keep looking periodically over the next few weeks. Appreciate it.

GeneH   •   Tue Jun 23 2015 at 10:56am PDT

Me again. :)

Are you doing a “rolling close” on this question? If not, then can I assume there have been 0 chains making “the pledge” since the question opened?

Thanks!

Edit: Or I should say, there could be 1 pledging but not 2 because you would have closed “1”.

kmcmorr (ADMIN)   •   Wed Jun 24 2015 at 07:56am PDT

The rolling close was not an available market when this question was published. As far as I can tell you are correct that there have not been any chains that have actually stopped using antibiotics. It does seem that some restaurants are pledging to reduce the use of antibiotics, but they haven’t gone cold turkey. Sorry for the pun.

GeneH   •   Wed Jun 24 2015 at 08:45am PDT

Great! Just so I am clear, you are saying that if a company announces today they are going anti-biotic free then it MUST have that chicken in the stores by August 1st?

An announcement that they are going anti-biotic free by “such and such a date” after Aug 1st does not count?

kmcmorr (ADMIN)   •   Fri Jun 26 2015 at 12:02pm PDT

They just need to announce it by Sept 1 – I can’t imagine they could actually change their practices that quickly with contracts, etc.

ntulchinsky   •   Sat May 23 2015 at 10:54am PDT

I do not understand why This is the right answer, Can someone explain?

kmcmorr (ADMIN)   •   Wed May 27 2015 at 12:00pm PDT

Happy to respond but I’m not sure what your question is – can you elaborate? Thanks.

Warren Hatch   •   Wed May 06 2015 at 10:39am PDT

Yum owns KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell. If all three announce they will phase out antibiotics in their chicken, would that count as one or three restaurant chains? What if Yum makes the announcement for all three? I’d think three either way, but I thought it’s worth checking just in case.

kmcmorr (ADMIN)   •   Wed May 06 2015 at 11:05am PDT

Great question, thanks. I would count it as three different chains, despite the fact that they have the same parent company. I appreciate the thoughts.

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