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Millennium Problems: Which will get solved first?




Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture


Predicted: 11.84%

Actual: 11.84%

Hodge Conjecture


Predicted: 9.20%

Actual: 9.20%



Predicted: 8.13%

Actual: 8.13%

P vs NP Problem


Predicted: 12.58%

Actual: 12.58%

Riemann Hypothesis


Predicted: 24.33%

Actual: 24.33%

The Navier-Stokes Equation


Predicted: 24.92%

Actual: 24.92%

Yang-Mills and Mass Gap


Predicted: 8.98%

Actual: 8.98%

  • refunded

Question ends

September 04, 2020 @ 03:16pm PDT



Predictions Made


Most by: ChloeBurns (100 predictions)


Sort by: Down Date

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Mon Oct 26 2015 at 09:14am PDT

This question has been refunded due to its long timeframe.

Polyergic   •   Mon Oct 26 2015 at 12:27pm PDT

Why is a long lifetime a reason to refund? Your system allowed a much longer lifetime when this was created, why the sudden unannounced and retroactive policy change?

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Mon Oct 26 2015 at 12:51pm PDT

Hi Polyergic, we’re winding down this site, and will suspend all forecasting in December. You can sign up for our new sports site at and we’ll be launching a site focused on finance, economics, and politics shortly.

GradualStudent   •   Fri Mar 28 2014 at 07:05am PDT

Apparently solution to Navier Stokes was a corollary to a larger more abstract theorem. The paper comes down to particular Theorem 6.1 for which a counterexample has been found, and that error was acknowledged by the author. This may still be the first Millennial Problem to be solved, but seemingly hasn’t been solved yet.

ecotax   •   Sun Jan 12 2014 at 03:31am PST

Neither my Russion nor my math skills are good enough to check this claim:
But it looks like this question may soon be answered with Navier-Stokes.

ecotax   •   Wed Jan 22 2014 at 01:58pm PST

GradualStudent   •   Fri Mar 28 2014 at 06:56am PDT

I’m surprised there could be a shortage of Russian-speaking mathematicians (“However, the combination of the Russian text and the specialist knowledge needed to understand the Navier-Stokes equations means the international mathematical community, which usually communicates in English, is having difficulty evaluating it.” )

santok   •   Mon Nov 28 2011 at 09:55am PST


GradualStudent   •   Mon Sep 19 2011 at 08:49pm PDT

Overlap with another market?

Polyergic   •   Thu Dec 04 2008 at 02:49pm PST

Well, there is the end date of 09/04/20; I suppose “None” should pay if no prizes are awarded by then.

simon_   •   Tue Sep 04 2007 at 02:38pm PDT

how could anyone buy “none”? it can literally never get paid… stupid.

futurebird   •   Mon Sep 03 2007 at 04:56pm PDT

I spoke too soon… someone has bought it.

santok   •   Mon Nov 28 2011 at 09:56am PST


futurebird   •   Mon Sep 03 2007 at 04:55pm PDT

No deadline, but if any problem is answered the none option should go to zero… People want to make money by playing this option in the mean time. But I guess I could try to remove it and just let people who want to do that short every stock.

Polyergic   •   Mon Sep 03 2007 at 03:57pm PDT

Without a deadline the “none” option can’t win – it can only continue to not lose.
Is there a deadline?



GradualStudent sold The Navier-Stokes Equation at 28.51%
March 28, 2014 @ 07:00am PDT

"Turbulent flow is cool, that's gotta be interesting to solve"

GradualStudent bought The Navier-Stokes Equation at 12.61%
October 10, 2013 @ 07:19pm PDT

"Seems the most tractable."

GradualStudent bought Hodge Conjecture at 10.73%
October 22, 2011 @ 07:34pm PDT

"this would solve the rest of them."

GradualStudent sold P vs NP Problem at 13.15%
September 19, 2011 @ 08:50pm PDT

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historical trend

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More information about the possible answers

Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture

Hodge Conjecture


P vs NP Problem

Riemann Hypothesis

The Navier-Stokes Equation

Yang-Mills and Mass Gap