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How much will the the Chicago Transit Authority's (CTA) budget be cut under Gov. Bruce Rauner's fiscal budget for 2016, compared to 2015?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Budget will be increased

(closed)

Predicted: 2.96%

Actual: 2.96%

Between $0 and $30M

(closed)

Predicted: 17.30%

Actual: 17.30%

Between $30M and $60M

(closed)

Predicted: 12.97%

Actual: 12.97%

Between $60M and $90M

(closed)

Predicted: 14.16%

Actual: 14.16%

Between $90M and $120M

(closed)

Predicted: 14.16%

Actual: 14.16%

Between $120M and $150M

(closed)

Predicted: 14.17%

Actual: 14.17%

Between $150M and $180M

(closed)

Predicted: 14.16%

Actual: 14.16%

More than $180M

(closed)

Predicted: 10.08%

Actual: 10.08%

  • refunded

Question ends

June 30, 2015 @ 10:00pm PDT

Predictions Made

41

Most by: SneakyPete (16 predictions)

Discussion

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kmcmorr (ADMIN)   •   Tue Sep 15 2015 at 10:44am PDT

The state of Illinois still has not passed a budget. I’m in agreement that this market should be refunded due to the temporary budget that was passed, and the subsequent cuts that came from that budget. This market was just not worded for that scenario. If there are any strong arguments against this please comment with appropriate sources within the next day. Thanks.

GeneH   •   Tue Sep 15 2015 at 11:36am PDT

I think I made some inklings in this market trading on what I would consider good information at the time. I believe it corrected the market price which was highly mis-priced at the time. I would hate to lose those inklings.

However, your point is taken and the conditions have changed and there is no answer choice to the effect of “no budget will be passed before the deadline”.

It is only a game and I will be fine with what you decide. All is well. :)

GeneH   •   Sat Jun 27 2015 at 03:02am PDT

It appears highly unlikely at this point that a budget bill will be signed by the Gov before Wednesday of next week. he vetoed it on Thursday and the House and Senate do not meet again until Tuesday, June 30th.

Will the question end as unresolved or will it be extended?

Thanks.

SneakyPete   •   Fri Aug 07 2015 at 06:48pm PDT

It appears that the market originator is not an active player. Joined in Jan 2015 ahd has no predictions since joining. Will write admin to check and possibly refund the market.

SneakyPete   •   Mon Jun 29 2015 at 07:20pm PDT

I agree with your point of view to end the market as unresolved.

GeneH   •   Tue Jun 23 2015 at 09:22am PDT

One more thought for the Question Writer: It appears that it is possible no budget will be passed by the legislature by July 1.

If it does not pass then apparently across the board cuts will take place automatically.

How does this factor into how you will decide to close the question or not? Extend it? Refund it?

Thanks!

GeneH   •   Tue Jun 23 2015 at 06:29am PDT

I would like to ask for a clarification, if anyone would like to provide one.

The proposal is for a $170M cut to “Chicago area mass transit”. I lived in the Chicago area and I know that CTA and METRA are two different legal entities that provide rail service (CTA in the City and Metra to the Suburbs).

The articles states that the METRA cut is $20.8M so that means the CTA cut is just below $150 million.

The answer is probably obvious, but I would just like to know for sure before making a bet if we are ONLY considering CTA’s budget and not grouping it in with a wider transportation funding issue that includes METRA.

Thanks in advance for any responses.

lenlesmac   •   Tue Jun 23 2015 at 06:44am PDT

Thanks for clarifying! The questions specifies the “(CTA) budget”, so I’m changing my forecast accordingly unless the questions creator (leftovers) states otherwise.

GeneH   •   Tue Jun 23 2015 at 06:54am PDT

No problem. It took me a while looking at the question and the associated articles to make the connection. If you have not lived there I can see how it would not appear they are separate entities.

If the Gov is starting out at a proposed cut of $149.2 million than it seems reasonable to assume that is the high point and any negotiations/compromises will be towards a cut LESS than that.

lenlesmac   •   Wed Jun 17 2015 at 11:03pm PDT

“Gov. Bruce Rauner’s proposed budget includes $170 million in fund reductions for Chicago-area mass transit, most of which would be borne by the CTA.”

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-metra-cuts-met-20150617-story.html

Rationales

"Assuming change to CTA only, not entire budget"

lenlesmac bought Between $120M and $150M at 10.99%
June 23, 2015 @ 06:41am PDT

historical trend

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