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When will human beings first walk on the surface of Mars?




First step on Mars


Predicted: January 26, 2026

Actual: January 26, 2026

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Question ends

December 31, 2025 @ 08:59pm PST



Predictions Made


Most by: ChloeBurns (3 predictions)


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benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Mon Oct 26 2015 at 11:05am PDT

This question has been refunded due to its long timeframe.

ChloeBurns   •   Tue Oct 06 2015 at 05:22am PDT

@rswansen, CNBC suggests a possible arb between the manned mission to Mars market and the long term interest rate market in an article titled Humans to Walk on Mars Before Long Term Rates Rise. What do you think?

sflicht   •   Tue Oct 06 2015 at 08:45am PDT

Highly doubtful. My point estimate for manned mission to Mars is 2032 or so, and I’d expect to see 10y yields above 3% before 2025.

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