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How many seats will the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) get in the 7 May 2015 UK elections?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

0 seats

(closed)

Predicted: 15.28%

Actual: 0.00%

1 seat

(closed)

Predicted: 71.85%

Actual: 100.00%

2 seats

(closed)

Predicted: 7.08%

Actual: 0.00%

3 seats

(closed)

Predicted: 2.99%

Actual: 0.00%

4 seats

(closed)

Predicted: 1.59%

Actual: 0.00%

5 or more seats

(closed)

Predicted: 1.19%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

May 01, 2015 @ 08:42pm PDT

Predictions Made

14

Most by: SneakyPete (8 predictions)

Discussion

Rationales

"The Guardian's analysis suggests UKIP could win 5 seats easily by targeting marginal seats, implying greater than 1% probability. "

Reynard bought 5 or more seats at 0.42%
April 14, 2015 @ 06:07pm PDT

"Good odds"

DariusX bought 0 seats at 10.08%
April 04, 2015 @ 09:27am PDT

historical trend

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