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MLB: How many more runs will be scored in the American League than in the National League in the 2015 regular season?

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PREDICTED VALUE

TODAY

AL > NL

(closed)

Predicted: 604.00

Actual: 664.00

  • completed

Question ends

October 03, 2015 @ 02:40pm PDT

topic

Sports

Predictions Made

229

Most by: job (200 predictions)

Discussion

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job   •   Mon Sep 07 2015 at 02:00pm PDT

GeneH’
You have to select total; http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/league/nl
Then you will see;
AL played 2039 games with 8851 runs = 4,34 runs/game ….2430 games……10548 runs
NL played 2043 games with 8412 runs = 4,12 runs/game ….2430 games……10005 runs
-————————————————————————————————————————————————
Prognoses……………………………………………….AL>NL………………………………….543 runs

GeneH   •   Mon Sep 07 2015 at 02:30pm PDT

Interesting trend since you last replied. In less than a month it has gone from 630 to 561 to 543. Will that trend continue and if so at what rate?

Thanks.

job   •   Fri Aug 14 2015 at 03:48am PDT

Today’s extrapolation:
More runs for Al ……561

GeneH   •   Mon Sep 07 2015 at 12:44pm PDT

Using the ESPN link below I selected the data post-All-Star break and calculated that the AL’s run per game is 4.56 and the NL’s is 4.37.

The AL has 391 games left and the NL has 387 (as of 3:30pm). Multiplied out this gives a going forward differential of 91 runs.

Add that to the current AL lead of 439 that gives a projected 530 run differential.

Taking it a step further I averaged the pre-allstar game runs per game with the Post-allstar for both and come out with a differential of 99 runs.

Add that to the 439 and it comes out to 538.

Not 100% confident of my math skills so take with a grain of salt, but thought I would offer this up. Thanks for reading.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/split/182/league/nl

GeneH   •   Mon Sep 07 2015 at 12:55pm PDT

I suppose a hole in my math could be that post all-star break the runs per game are based on a smaller number of games played so the averages might be high. However, I also suppose that at this point each additional game played will have less effect on the average.

One observation: Post allstar game the the AL runs per game average has increased 5.1% (4.56 versus 4.34)and the NL average increased by 6.3% (4.37 vs 4.11). Perhaps the NL has made up some ground.

GeneH   •   Fri Aug 14 2015 at 07:49am PDT

Thanks for that update. I just checked the current nominal difference and it is 395 in favor of the AL. This is a 49 run reduction since our last look at the numbers. The trend seems to have shifted since the All Star break.

With only a month and a half left to the season, wouldn’t the runs per game that you calculated prior really have to spike up for the AL over what you calculated before in order to get on trend for roughly the current price of 555? 555 minus 395 = 160.

Again, I have no stats background and am only looking at this in a simple, nominal terms.

I am going to ignorantly and blindly enter this market with just 15 shares as a sell. Seems like there may be room for movement down.

I may learn a harsh lesson. :)

GeneH   •   Sun Aug 09 2015 at 06:12am PDT

Job—-if you could help me out in understanding how I would bet this type of question I would appreciate it. I see you bet heavily on this question. May not help me in this one but it will going forward.

As of today I calculte the AL has scored 444 more runs than the NL. Assuming the question was closing tomorrow and the current prediction price at “590” stayed the same, would I SELL this question because the predicted price is higher than the actual price of “444”? (Having said that, WOULD the closing price be 444 in this case?).

Sorry if this is a dopey question but this type of quesiton is not intuitive for me.

Thanks in advance.

job   •   Sun Aug 09 2015 at 07:33am PDT

GeneH-If all games had been played at this moment the outcome would be 444. But you have to keep in mind that AL played 1651 games and NL 1647 games. Al scored 4,27 Runs/game and NL 4,02 runs/game. If this is going on like this until all 2430 games have been played you get the following extrapolation:
AL 10,388 runs
NL 9,758 runs
-———————-
More runs for AL……. 630

GeneH   •   Sun Aug 09 2015 at 09:21am PDT

Thank you for that. Very helpful!

historical trend

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