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When will the El Nino event that began in 2014 end?

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Most by: sflicht (41 predictions)

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benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Jan 05 2016 at 10:15am PST

This market has been suspended. To forecast similar questions, please visit http://alphacast.cultivateforecasts.com

sflicht   •   Mon Jun 22 2015 at 06:38am PDT

NOAA has switched to a new sea surface temperature dataset (ERSSTv4 versus version 3b previously). This has changed some of the ONI values, and in particular Jan-Feb-Mar 2015 is now +0.4, technically below the El Nino threshold. Nonetheless, I’m not changing the resolution criteria: this question will still be resolved based on the first 3-month period (starting with April-May-June 2015) when the (new value of the) ONI falls below +0.5, as specified in the background information.

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