Inkling Public Site

Make a prediction

Spend money (inkles) to express what you think will happen.

Next

Wisdom of the crowd

Everyone's predictions are combined in to a single prediction.

Next

Judgment time

Were you right or were you wrong about your prediction?

Don't show this again

When will a trilateral meeting take place between Chinese President Xi Jinping, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and South Korean President Park Geun-hye?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

On or before September 1, 2015

(closed)

Predicted: 1.52%

Actual: 0.00%

Between September 2, 2015 - December 31, 2015

(closed)

5.68%

Between January 1, 2016- March 1, 2016

(closed)

17.74%

Between March 2, 2016 - June 1, 2016

(closed)

17.04%

Between June 2, 2016-September 1, 2016

(closed)

17.04%

On or after September 2, 2016

(closed)

17.04%

Not during any of the above times

(closed)

25.43%

  • expired

Question ends

December 01, 2015 @ 08:10pm PST

Predictions Made

60

Most by: vernscot (15 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

GeneH   •   Sun Oct 18 2015 at 10:32am PDT

The latest “confirmation” is that Li not Xi is going to meet with Abe and Park.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-japan-south-korea-to-hold-summit-this-year-1444821235

lenlesmac   •   Fri Oct 02 2015 at 10:31am PDT

“The foreign ministers of South Korea and Japan on Wednesday focused on steps toward convening a trilateral leaders’ summit that includes China for the first time in three years, which could take place as early as the end of the month.”

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=3009798&cloc=joongangdaily%7Chome%7Cnewslist1

GeneH   •   Fri Oct 02 2015 at 02:05pm PDT

I think the variable that has not been completely dismissed is if Xi will attend or not. I am not his attendance has been confirmed or Li will go in his place.

kmcmorr (ADMIN)   •   Fri Oct 02 2015 at 01:49pm PDT

Thanks. As always appreciate the info.

SneakyPete   •   Wed Sep 23 2015 at 08:50pm PDT

“ON OR BEFORE 1 SEPTEMBER 2015” can be cash-out as “NO”.

kmcmorr (ADMIN)   •   Thu Sep 24 2015 at 11:04am PDT

@SneakyPete Thanks for the reminder. I am going to recommend that there be a reminder email for these rolling market questions when a block of time has elapsed. I cannot seem to keep track of them. I appreciate it. I also appreciate the other comments. It looks as if some progress has been made in agreeing to a summit.

lenlesmac   •   Sat Sep 05 2015 at 05:33pm PDT

“Beijing and Seoul agreed late Wednesday to work toward a trilateral summit with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe by late October at the earliest.”

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/09/05/national/politics-diplomacy/komeito-leader-weighs-visit-to-china-south-korea-in-october/#.VeuI4J1VhBc

vernscot   •   Thu Sep 03 2015 at 08:09am PDT

Most Japan and S.K. news sources are confirming a meeting by early November. Abe has also agreed to a one-on-one with Park.

vernscot   •   Wed Sep 02 2015 at 12:43pm PDT

Abe has been pushing for better ties and the foreign ministers of the nations agreed in March to work for a summit “at the earliest convenient time.” A three-way meeting may be less politically difficult for China as Premier Li Keqiang rather than Xi would probably take part if previous top-level meetings are a guide.~ Bloomberg

Xi will probably not be there, if it happens at all ,as Abe has made no movement or statement.

GeneH   •   Wed Sep 02 2015 at 01:01pm PDT

Part 2: I am going on the assumption the question requires all 3 of the leaders to formally meet face to face and not a meeting just with their proxies.

vernscot   •   Wed Sep 02 2015 at 01:11pm PDT

My thought as well. If that were the case, then it already happened, right? Then the question is moot. Also, Abe’s silence is deafening.

GeneH   •   Wed Sep 02 2015 at 01:19pm PDT

I think the question is still valid. There has been no face to face to face meeting with the top leaders (regardless of who they are and when they became the leader) of the 3 countries since 2012 (?).

It would be a significant political event if they did. The statement did not say Park and Xi would meet and, you are correct, Abe’s office did not respond.

So, while this is progress they have to get Abe on board AND the 3 them meet.

GeneH   •   Wed Sep 02 2015 at 12:58pm PDT

I tend to agree. The language used in this new info is somewhat opaque in terms of who will actually meet.

I think a tri-lateral meeting is possible, but a meeting with the named leaders in the question is more in doubt (in my opinion).

lenlesmac   •   Wed Sep 02 2015 at 10:20am PDT

China and South Korea agreed on Wednesday to resume a trilateral summit in Japan as early as late October, following a three-year suspension.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/1854687/south-korean-leaders-points-shared-past-hardships

lenlesmac   •   Sat Aug 29 2015 at 06:05pm PDT

“Park travels to Beijing next week, where she will seek President Xi Jinping’s support for a trilateral summit soon with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. In recent months, Park and Xi have signaled a willingness to move beyond acrimony over Japan’s wartime past to permit the first such meeting in three years.”

http://azdailysun.com/news/world/south-korea-s-park-eyes-summit-with-china-japan-after/article_4be35281-3578-5f98-8f72-16bd02159e5c.html

GeneH   •   Fri Aug 14 2015 at 08:17am PDT

Apparently Abe did not go far enough in his speech to placate China and his virual non-mention of South Korea will likely not go over well.

I am by no means knowledgeable of the cultural significance of this, but from what I have read it is meaningful enough to perhaps manifest itself in no agreement to have a tri-lateral meeting this year. I suppose a form of protest from China/South Korea.

Just putting it out there. Not trying to change anyones mind.

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/08/14/432205333/japan-s-abe-notes-regret-and-past-apologies-in-wwii-speech

lenlesmac   •   Thu Aug 13 2015 at 10:53am PDT

South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se vowed trilateral cooperation Thursday to hold a summit meeting of President Park Geun-hye with her counterparts in China and Japan by the end of this year. “My intention is to host that meeting, especially to host this trilateral summit at the earliest possible mutually convenient time before the end of this year”

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2015/08/13/0200000000AEN20150813010700315.html

GeneH   •   Thu Aug 13 2015 at 06:30am PDT

It appears a speech Abe will deliver in the next 24 hours marking of the 70th Anniversary of the end of WWII will have a profound impact on whether a meeting will take place or not. I guess this REALLY matters.

http://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2015/08/13/focus-on-japan-premier-abes-words-in-world-war-ii-statement

lenlesmac   •   Mon Jun 22 2015 at 10:15am PDT

“Japan and South Korea aim for three-way summit with China by December”

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/69589112/japan-and-south-korea-aim-for-threeway-summit-with-china-by-december

kmcmorr (ADMIN)   •   Mon Jun 22 2015 at 10:18am PDT

Do you think they’ll follow through?

lenlesmac   •   Mon Jun 22 2015 at 10:22am PDT

I think there’s a good chance. Their respective ambassadors had a trilateral mtg sometime last year that seemed to go well. SK can’t seemed to get past the looming ‘comfort women’ issue, but perhaps the time is right (politically) to do so now.

millerlogan   •   Sat Jun 20 2015 at 06:50am PDT

kmcmorr (ADMIN)   •   Sat Jun 20 2015 at 07:00am PDT

a meeting might be sooner than we think! Thanks for sharing.

lenlesmac   •   Wed Jun 17 2015 at 09:51am PDT

To confirm, will this question stay open for the next year and 3 months?

kmcmorr (ADMIN)   •   Wed Jun 17 2015 at 09:54am PDT

The question closes on Oct. 1. Will be resolved in a year and three months.

lenlesmac   •   Wed Jun 17 2015 at 09:59am PDT

Ok, thanks!

malcmur   •   Fri Jun 05 2015 at 08:23pm PDT

So never in this case means not before Oct 1? Or will it stay open in eternity?

kmcmorr (ADMIN)   •   Sun Jun 07 2015 at 07:05pm PDT

Never means not during any of the aformentioned times. It wasn’t clear. I apologize. The question will be resolved when either the meeting occurs or after all time periods have passed. The question closes, however, on Oct. 1.

onedave   •   Sat Jun 06 2015 at 11:57am PDT

I would guess that it stays open until one of the leaders leaves office.

Rationales

"Japan and South Korea aim for three-way summit with China by December"

lenlesmac bought Between September 2, 2015 - December 31, 2015 at 8.69%
June 22, 2015 @ 10:14am PDT

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
Help
Ajax-loader