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When will Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi no longer be the president of Yemen?

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Predictions Made

46

Most by: malcmur (23 predictions)

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benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Jan 05 2016 at 10:15am PST

This market has been suspended. To forecast similar questions, please visit http://alphacast.cultivateforecasts.com

onedave   •   Wed Sep 23 2015 at 03:44pm PDT

wstritt   •   Sat Sep 19 2015 at 07:39pm PDT

It seems like criteria 3 “Hadi leaves the country with no apparent intention to return on a specific date (i.e., he goes into exile)” may have been met back in March.

CNN, your stated reference, currently refers to Hadi as being in exile: http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/13/middleeast/yemen-president-u-n-talks/index.html

Since his exile preceded this market, should we assume that criteria 3 doesn’t apply?

onedave   •   Sun Sep 20 2015 at 01:15pm PDT

He was in exile when the market started. So, criteria 3 cannot occur until:

1) He returns to Yemen after today.
2) He leaves Yemen with no apparent intention to return on a specific date (goes into exile) after event 1.

In my opinion, he may still go into exile a second time and then we can cash out the question.

Do you agree?

wstritt   •   Sun Sep 20 2015 at 02:39pm PDT

That works for me and makes most sense given the situation when market started. Thanks for clarification.

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