Inkling Public Site

Make a prediction

Spend money (inkles) to express what you think will happen.

Next

Wisdom of the crowd

Everyone's predictions are combined in to a single prediction.

Next

Judgment time

Were you right or were you wrong about your prediction?

Don't show this again

Which technology will dominate the cell phone application market?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Flash Lite

(closed)

Predicted: 10.69%

Actual: 10.69%

Java ME

(closed)

Predicted: 13.75%

Actual: 13.75%

JavaFX

(closed)

Predicted: 17.55%

Actual: 17.55%

None

(closed)

Predicted: 11.26%

Actual: 11.26%

Other

(closed)

Predicted: 11.53%

Actual: 11.53%

Python

(closed)

Predicted: 11.72%

Actual: 11.72%

Qt

(closed)

Predicted: 11.26%

Actual: 11.26%

Web/JavaScript

(closed)

Predicted: 12.21%

Actual: 12.21%

  • refunded

Question ends

December 31, 2010 @ 11:59pm PST

Predictions Made

54

Most by: Lorin7919 (20 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

davidw   •   Mon Sep 10 2007 at 03:06pm PDT

Oops, major think-o – I forgot Flash Lite, which I just added – sorry about that.

davidw   •   Mon Sep 10 2007 at 01:08pm PDT

Good question. The deciding factor should be the phones shipping at that time, and what they ship with natively (i.e. Python doesn’t count unless they ship with a Python interpreter). I honestly don’t know the best way to measure that now, let alone in three years, with how fast these things change. By “dominate”, let’s say more than 60%.

onemike   •   Mon Sep 10 2007 at 10:14am PDT

How will you resolve the market and expire the contracts? Is there a reliable data source (that can be certain of being around in 2010) that you intend to rely upon?

Also, you may want to specify some standard for “dominate” so that your “None” option has a definite meaning. Does the dominate technology have to have (say) at least a 40 percent market share on phones sold during 2010, or how will you measure?

This is an interesting (and potentially valuable) market, but I think it needs just a little clarification.

Rationales

"Moore's law make the advantages of other general purpose prg. lang's smaller over time"

sah$5Enu bought Python at 11.38%
November 05, 2010 @ 08:27pm PDT

"Python is excellent for rapid development, and may well find wider usage in the mobile sector."

davrieb bought Python at 11.37%
August 08, 2010 @ 02:06pm PDT

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
Help
Ajax-loader

More information about the possible answers

Flash Lite

Java ME

JavaFX

None

Other

Python

Qt

Web/JavaScript