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Will Donald Trump be chosen as the GOP candidate in the USA 2016 presidential election?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Yes

(closed)

2.89%

  • expired

Question ends

November 09, 2016 @ 08:40am PST

Predictions Made

35

Most by: Treherne (8 predictions)

Discussion

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benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Jan 05 2016 at 10:15am PST

This market has been suspended. To forecast similar questions, please visit http://alphacast.cultivateforecasts.com

Treherne   •   Tue Sep 01 2015 at 10:38am PDT

I have updated the wording of the question to remove the ambiguity from it.

ChloeBurns   •   Tue Sep 01 2015 at 11:08am PDT

Sucks for me.

ChloeBurns   •   Tue Sep 01 2015 at 08:27am PDT

Treherne, can you clarify? Is this question asking if Trump will be elected president as the GOP nominee or if Trump will be chosen by the GOP in the primary to run for president? The phrase “in the presidential election” seems to suggest the former.

Treherne   •   Tue Sep 01 2015 at 10:25am PDT

To resolve as true Trump needs only to be chosen by the GOP to run for president.

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Sep 01 2015 at 09:14am PDT

I think it’s pretty clear that to resolve as true, Trump must both be the GOP nominee and win the presidency.

Edit: Treherne has clarified the wording of this question. Trump only needs to be nominated by the GOP.

sflicht   •   Tue Sep 01 2015 at 11:00am PDT

Ben, you should probably clarify that your previous comment was referring to an earlier wording, so that people new to the question don’t overreact to the “(ADMIN)” tag by your username.

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Wed Aug 05 2015 at 07:11am PDT

@Treherne, I’ve adjusted the starting probability down to 5% to match other prediction markets, see: http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016president. Of course, users can feel free to forecast as they please.

foobar   •   Wed Aug 05 2015 at 08:16am PDT

If this market started at 50% I would say there would be an enormous number of free inkles.

Treherne   •   Wed Aug 05 2015 at 08:25am PDT

A man can dream

Rationales

"He's a clown but a moderate. "

unregistered_user_sGhe!3ut bought at 27.45%
September 19, 2015 @ 01:57pm PDT

historical trend

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