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Will 50 or more people in South Korea die of MERS by August 1, 2015?






Predicted: 4.35%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

July 21, 2015 @ 07:00pm PDT



Predictions Made


Most by: GeneH (4 predictions)


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GeneH   •   Thu Jul 23 2015 at 04:23pm PDT

Looking at the latest reports it seems there will be no more deaths. If not then at most maybe 1 or 2 more. A comfortable margin.

kmcmorr (ADMIN)   •   Thu Jul 23 2015 at 04:54pm PDT

Yes it seems likely that the deaths will be in the high 30s. Though I’m not invested in the market it would seem wrong to root for more deaths therefore I am thankful that this will likely cash out as ‘no.’ Thanks for your continued input genehayward – it is appreciated!

GeneH   •   Thu Jul 23 2015 at 05:44pm PDT

Haha! Yes, this game does create some perverse incentives to think of things in an odd way. We are supposed to be objective evaluators of these events, for better or worse.

Not a problem to help or participate. I have the discretionary time and love doing this. I just finished the last season of Good Judgment Project and this passes the time. :)

kmcmorr (ADMIN)   •   Thu Jul 23 2015 at 10:21am PDT

36 deaths as of 7/22.

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).