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Will Vice President Joe Biden announce that he will run as a 2016 Democratic Presidential candidate prior to Friday 25 September 2015?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Yes

(closed)

Predicted: 7.07%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

September 20, 2015 @ 09:59pm PDT

Predictions Made

143

Most by: GeneH (20 predictions)

Discussion

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SneakyPete   •   Thu Sep 24 2015 at 04:04pm PDT

Joe Biden has still not decided to makee a 2016 Presidential run.

sflicht   •   Sat Aug 01 2015 at 03:37pm PDT

sflicht   •   Thu Jul 16 2015 at 10:56am PDT

Anyone care to offer an analysis of the odds here? The only real-money market I’m aware of is https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleOption?marketId=1273#openoffers1, which suggests a 35-40% chance.

GeneH   •   Fri Jul 17 2015 at 06:50am PDT

He is upping his visibility in the next few weeks. He appeared by the side of the President when he announced the Iran deal. Biden is the point man for lobbying the Senate to get the deal approved. He will be traveling out West to make appearances.

Since he has kept a low profile since the death of his son last month(?) I think he will assess how he feels about how he is received on this trip. I believe he REALLY wants to so I am betting “Yes”. Since he has run before he can ramp up a campaign pretty quickly and fundraise.

However, on the flip side, the “hard Left” that supports Clinton REALLY want to follow up the President with the First Female President. If he runs he will risk alienating them. Bernie Sanders is the flip-side of Trump—-NO CHANCE of getting the nomination (that is not a biased opinion, just an objective observation).

So, even with Clinton getting bruised at the moment she is a lock for the nomination, assuming no skeletons come out of the closet (hers or Bill’s).

Does Biden really want to be the one to knock Hillary out of contention? (of course that is assuming he could beat her outright, which is questionable).

The odds should probably be more towards the 40% to 45% chance you cite.

Bottomline for me: I always bet on a politcians ego to over-ride anything else, so I am sticking with a YES, He will declare.

Hope others respond. That is my view.

Rationales

"According to Huff Post article, he is "more likely than not"."

vernscot bought at 47.91%
August 24, 2015 @ 01:43pm PDT

"The Trump of the Democrat party!"

chelseaboys bought at 36.36%
July 06, 2015 @ 11:42am PDT

historical trend

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