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Will Guantanamo Bay close before President Obama's last day in office?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Yes

(closed)

20.36%

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Question ends

January 20, 2017 @ 12:38pm PST

Predictions Made

36

Most by: SneakyPete (5 predictions)

Discussion

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benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Jan 05 2016 at 10:15am PST

This market has been suspended. To forecast similar questions, please visit http://alphacast.cultivateforecasts.com

BeteNoire   •   Sat Oct 03 2015 at 07:41am PDT

There is no question Obama wants to do it, but there is a law against bringing any of the prisoners into the U.S.
does anyone know if this law needs to be reathorized before the end of the president’s term?

ulfelder   •   Sat Oct 03 2015 at 02:30am PDT

From the New York Times today:

The Pentagon on Friday notified Congress that it would send officials to Colorado to assess whether a wing of the federal Bureau of Prisons complex in Florence that holds numerous convicted terrorists or a nearby state penitentiary that is nearly empty could be used to house detainees from the military prison at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba.

The idea prompted an immediate pushback from Colorado lawmakers, who noted that a federal statute bars bringing such detainees onto domestic soil.

Whole story here.

BeteNoire   •   Tue Sep 29 2015 at 06:27am PDT

What is the criteria for this to resolve. Vacating and abandoning Guantanamo entirely?

kmcmorr (ADMIN)   •   Wed Sep 30 2015 at 10:47am PDT

I stated in the criteria that the prison must actually close it’s doors, not just announce a closing, so I would assume the prisoners would actually be vacated prior to that. So to answer your question, yes, vacate the prison entirely. Sorry for the delay in responding.

BeteNoire   •   Wed Sep 30 2015 at 02:33pm PDT

I should perhaps have been more specific with my question. Guantanamo is not just a prison, it is a naval base. Do you mean that the whole thing including the naval base must be vacated?

kmcmorr (ADMIN)   •   Thu Oct 01 2015 at 10:31am PDT

The prison. Thanks for the clarification.

ulfelder   •   Thu Aug 20 2015 at 12:27pm PDT

Current SecDef thinks it should happen; see here. Whether or not it will happen is another matter…

ulfelder   •   Wed Jul 22 2015 at 02:58pm PDT

You might want to change the closing date of this question to January 20, 2017, when the next president is scheduled to be inaugurated.

kmcmorr (ADMIN)   •   Thu Jul 23 2015 at 06:58am PDT

Sure thing – will obviously cash out when resolution criteria is known and disregard further predictions. Appreciate it!

Rationales

"Idoubt that tbe Gitmo prison will havs been closed by President Obamas departure from office."

SneakyPete sold at 17.31%
November 13, 2015 @ 09:13pm PST

"I think most agree its outlived its purpose."

applejacksK bought at 17.89%
August 20, 2015 @ 12:36pm PDT

"Motivated lame-duck president with a year and a half to do it"

ulfelder bought at 34.08%
July 29, 2015 @ 02:50am PDT

"Need for "symbolic legacy" important to Obama, almost regardless of the practical consequences. cf Iran deal. "

dominich bought at 35.44%
July 26, 2015 @ 04:57am PDT

historical trend

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