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How many people will vote in the 2016 presidential election?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Fewer than 110 million

(closed)

5.59%

110 million - 120 million

(closed)

31.21%

120 million - 130 million

(closed)

20.92%

130 million - 140 million

(closed)

20.92%

140 million or more

(closed)

21.34%

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Question ends

November 08, 2016 @ 04:12pm PST

Predictions Made

28

Most by: GeneH (8 predictions)

Discussion

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benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Jan 05 2016 at 10:15am PST

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GeneH   •   Tue Jul 28 2015 at 02:35pm PDT

In 2008—-129,235,000
In 2012—-131,407,000

I think those are high water marks—-the “Obama Factor”. I cannot see it going above 130M again in this election, given the potential choices. The passion will just not be there.

Mid to Low 120’s with perhaps a dip below that.

I am open to other suggestions. Thanks.

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Jul 28 2015 at 01:52pm PDT

@eduhaime, I’ve changed this question to use ranges rather than a single value. We’re generally trying to transition away from point-estimate questions, as it’s harder to measure their accuracy. If you have a specific reason for wanting a single estimate, let me know if the comments, and we can publish a second question in parallel.

Rationales

"people are disgustyed with the current leaders"

unregistered_user_uh!5nuWe bought 140 million or more at 11.31%
August 13, 2015 @ 01:36pm PDT

historical trend

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More information about the possible answers

110 million - 120 million

120 million - 130 million

130 million - 140 million