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Which of the listed Republican Presidential candidates will be the first to drop out of the 2016 Republican 2016 Presidential race prior to Friday 1 January 2016? (SEE DETAILED COMMENTS BELOW)

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Bush

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Carson

(closed)

Predicted: 0.02%

Actual: 0.00%

Christie

(closed)

Predicted: 0.02%

Actual: 0.00%

Fiorina

(closed)

Predicted: 0.03%

Actual: 0.00%

Graham

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Huckabee

(closed)

Predicted: 0.08%

Actual: 0.00%

Jindal

(closed)

Predicted: 0.00%

Actual: 0.00%

Kasich

(closed)

Predicted: 0.02%

Actual: 0.00%

None by Dec 18

(closed)

Predicted: 0.11%

Actual: 0.00%

Paul

(closed)

Predicted: 0.05%

Actual: 0.00%

Perry

(closed)

Predicted: 99.57%

Actual: 100.00%

Rubio

(closed)

Predicted: 0.02%

Actual: 0.00%

Tie. (TWO or more the same calendar day)

(closed)

Predicted: 0.03%

Actual: 0.00%

Trump

(closed)

Predicted: 0.43%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

November 15, 2015 @ 09:59pm PST

Predictions Made

109

Most by: malcmur (25 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

bobdevine   •   Fri Sep 11 2015 at 02:29pm PDT

ChloeBurns   •   Tue Sep 01 2015 at 10:50am PDT

Why did this question change to 1/1/16? Wasn’t the original wording mid December 2015?

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Jul 28 2015 at 01:40pm PDT

@SneakyPete, I made a couple changes to this question:

  • made it an exclusive question, since that seemed appropriate
  • removed the “other” option, because that could be interpreted to include fringe candidates
  • clarified that None means none before the listed end date

SneakyPete   •   Thu Jul 30 2015 at 04:37pm PDT

Thanks for hour corrections. SP

Rationales

"Hedge"

wstritt bought Tie. (TWO or more the same calendar day) at 0.01%
September 11, 2015 @ 03:21pm PDT

"Media coverage after the debate"

applejacksK sold Fiorina at 12.38%
August 08, 2015 @ 12:36pm PDT

"no money"

kylehauptman bought Graham at 18.50%
August 05, 2015 @ 08:50am PDT

"I don't know how long he will last, but he has too much organization to the first out."

applejacksK sold Huckabee at 12.94%
August 04, 2015 @ 04:38pm PDT

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historical trend

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