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Which Republican 2016 candidates will finish in the top 3 positions in the Iowa Republican Presidential Caucuses?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Bush

(closed)

21.42%

Carson

(closed)

26.51%

Cruz

(closed)

96.58%

Huckabee

(closed)

13.95%

Jindal

(closed)

0.02%

Other Candidate

(closed)

16.86%

Paul

(closed)

3.12%

Rubio

(closed)

89.70%

Trump

(closed)

91.81%

Walker

(closed)

Predicted: 0.06%

Actual: 0.00%

  • expired

Question ends

January 15, 2016 @ 09:59pm PST

Predictions Made

160

Most by: MamaSDI (26 predictions)

Discussion

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benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Jan 05 2016 at 10:05am PST

This market has been suspended. To forecast similar questions, please visit http://alphacast.cultivateforecasts.com

SneakyPete   •   Mon Sep 21 2015 at 03:58pm PDT

Walker suspended his Presidential bid 9-21-21.

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Mon Aug 10 2015 at 06:57am PDT

@SneakyPete, I added a few candidates as options, based on their Iowa polling. I also adjusted some of the starting probabilities, and added a note for the highly unlikely outcome that multiple candidates tie for third place.

SneakyPete   •   Mon Sep 07 2015 at 06:21pm PDT

Thanks. SP

Rationales

"Fiorina"

vernscot bought Other Candidate at 6.94%
September 01, 2015 @ 08:14am PDT

historical trend

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