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NFL - How many games will each team win in the 2015 regular season?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED VALUE

TODAY

Arizona Cardinals

(closed)

9.50

Atlanta Falcons

(closed)

8.50

Baltimore Ravens

(closed)

9.00

Buffalo Bills

(closed)

8.50

Carolina Panthers

(closed)

14.00

Chicago Bears

(closed)

5.00

Cincinnati Bengals

(closed)

10.00

Cleveland Browns

(closed)

6.50

Dallas Cowboys

(closed)

9.10

Denver Broncos

(closed)

8.80

Detroit Lions

(closed)

8.00

Green Bay Packers

(closed)

11.00

Houston Texans

(closed)

8.50

Indianapolis Colts

(closed)

10.00

Jacksonville Jaguars

(closed)

5.50

Kansas City Chiefs

(closed)

8.50

Miami Dolphins

(closed)

9.00

Minnesota Vikings

(closed)

8.00

NY Giants

(closed)

8.50

NY Jets

(closed)

7.50

New England Patriots

(closed)

10.50

New Orleans Saints

(closed)

7.50

Oakland Raiders

(closed)

5.50

Philadelphia Eagles

(closed)

9.50

Pittsburgh Steelers

(closed)

8.50

SF 49ers

(closed)

7.00

San Diego Chargers

(closed)

8.00

Seattle Seahawks

(closed)

11.00

St Louis Rams

(closed)

8.00

Tampa Bay Bucs

(closed)

6.00

Tennessee Titans

(closed)

5.50

Washington Redskins

(closed)

6.50

  • expired

Question ends

December 27, 2015 @ 11:38am PST

topic

Sports

Predictions Made

34

Most by: wstritt (10 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

job   •   Wed Aug 05 2015 at 12:24pm PDT

Even if you only have 5,000 Inkles you are able to buy a share of 1,000. When I started some years ago, I often got the best profits by bying expensive shares. By scaling down like this you will get probably three effects:
1. Only very few players can participate in a question
2. It will be difficult for beginners to become a millionaire
3. The top 20 will loose their interest if there are no questions to invest the inkles they have.

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Wed Aug 05 2015 at 01:09pm PDT

These are valid concerns that are worth discussing, and we certainly don’t want to alienate our top users.

The flip-side here is that for many new users, it’s really intimidating / confusing to have a question where moving the forecast from 7 wins to 7.02 wins uses your entire budget. A small number of users (myself included) have worked their way through this, but for most people it’s not a compelling user experience and they just leave.

I’m going to create a forum discussion to address these issues and consider options for going forward. Stay tuned…

Tom501   •   Wed Aug 05 2015 at 03:25pm PDT

To your point though, if the investment it takes to move a number from 7.0 to 7.5 only moves the market from 7.0 to 7.1 there is more room for more investors that believe the end point should be 7.5. If it is easy to move the number in a small range market then very few people have the opportunity to participate at a point where they will see value.

chelseaboys   •   Wed Aug 05 2015 at 01:12pm PDT

The idea of a forum discussion is all well and good; however, in the meantime, for all the reasosns stated in these comments, please reset the scale here to 20:1.

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Wed Aug 05 2015 at 08:39am PDT

@chelseaboys, I’ve reduced the scaling on this question from 20x to 5×. I get that power users want to have some questions with higher risk and return, but we also want new users to be able to participate in a meaningful way.

wstritt   •   Fri Aug 07 2015 at 07:32pm PDT

Just noticed this market. Even at 20:1 this is not one of the stupidly scaled markets that is likely to cause wild swings in net worth given limited range of outcomes.

Tom501   •   Wed Aug 05 2015 at 10:45am PDT

With the scale set this narrow it’s almost impossible for anyone to participate. A buy of fifty moves the estimated outcome by a full game. With the swing being that big it deters anyone from participating.

chelseaboys   •   Wed Aug 05 2015 at 11:30am PDT

Tom – I agree; but, that wan’t my doing. I might as well refund it and forget about it.

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Wed Aug 05 2015 at 11:47am PDT

The scaling seems pretty comparable to a normal binary or options question—if it’s not worth it to forecast this question, it’s probably not worth it to forecast any question.

chelseaboys   •   Wed Aug 05 2015 at 11:51am PDT

But, each of these answers only has a range from 0-16. So, at the present scale, a move from 0 to 16 would only cost 800. But, as we know from the starting numbers (ranging from 5.5 to 11 and the average being 8) you don’t even need to spend that much.

chelseaboys   •   Wed Aug 05 2015 at 09:54am PDT

THIS REFERS TO BENTHINKIN’S COMMENT from 10:39 am CDT:

That’s ridiculous. This was a replicated market from 2014.

And I don’t buy the argument that folks can’t all participate. They just can’t buy as many shares; but, they can profit in a pro rata manner. What’s the big deal?

Please return the scale to 20:1.

historical trend

Click on possible answers in the right column to hide/show them on the graph. You can also hover over any line to see current value at that time. Graphs will begin to show data one hour after the question has been open. The Historical Trend chart does not display all prices ever reached since it is only updated at discrete time intervals, (hourly/daily/weekly, depending on the date range).
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