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Which of the Republican presidential candidates will be invited to participate in the top-tier CNN debate set for Sept. 16, 2015?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED CHANCE

TODAY

Jeb Bush

(closed)

Predicted: 99.81%

Actual: 100.00%

Ben Carson

(closed)

Predicted: 97.73%

Actual: 100.00%

Chris Christie

(closed)

Predicted: 96.74%

Actual: 100.00%

Ted Cruz

(closed)

Predicted: 96.09%

Actual: 100.00%

Carly Fiorina

(closed)

Predicted: 98.61%

Actual: 100.00%

Jim Gilmore

(closed)

Predicted: 0.04%

Actual: 0.00%

Lindsey Graham

(closed)

Predicted: 0.69%

Actual: 0.00%

Mike Huckabee

(closed)

Predicted: 97.06%

Actual: 100.00%

John Kasich

(closed)

Predicted: 96.32%

Actual: 100.00%

Bobby Jindal

(closed)

Predicted: 0.19%

Actual: 0.00%

George Pataki

(closed)

Predicted: 0.07%

Actual: 0.00%

Rand Paul

(closed)

Predicted: 98.02%

Actual: 100.00%

Rick Perry

(closed)

Predicted: 0.36%

Actual: 0.00%

Marco Rubio

(closed)

Predicted: 97.79%

Actual: 100.00%

Rick Santorum

(closed)

Predicted: 4.32%

Actual: 0.00%

Donald Trump

(closed)

Predicted: 98.85%

Actual: 100.00%

Scott Walker

(closed)

Predicted: 98.19%

Actual: 100.00%

Any candidate not listed

(closed)

Predicted: 0.68%

Actual: 0.00%

  • completed

Question ends

September 10, 2015 @ 02:00am PDT

Predictions Made

269

Most by: Tom501 (40 predictions)

Discussion

Sort by: Down Date

bobdevine   •   Thu Sep 10 2015 at 05:35pm PDT

mvguy   •   Tue Sep 01 2015 at 03:16pm PDT

Another wrinkle in this market: CNN has announced a change in the rules that allows the potential for there to be more than 10 candidates in the top-tier debate. We apparently won’t know until Sept. 10, however, so I’m going to set early that day as the market closing.

Tom501   •   Thu Aug 20 2015 at 11:54am PDT

Or CNN could just mix the candidates and not have a top and bottom tier.

mvguy   •   Thu Aug 20 2015 at 12:14pm PDT

If that happens, should I refund the market or designate everyone as being in the top tier? My inclination would be the former.

Tom501   •   Thu Aug 20 2015 at 01:12pm PDT

I would think that in those circumstances a refund would be in order. Personally I think CNN will move forward with 10 and 6 broken down by polling but at this point they could do something off-the-wall.

mvguy   •   Fri Aug 21 2015 at 07:51am PDT

I’ve thought about it some more, and I’ve decided that if that happens I’ll refund the market. I should have had some provision from the beginning for that possibility, but I didn’t.

sflicht   •   Tue Sep 01 2015 at 03:19pm PDT

mvguy   •   Tue Sep 01 2015 at 04:39pm PDT

No. As long as there’s a top-tier debate, I wouldn’t refund.

mvguy   •   Sat Aug 08 2015 at 07:58pm PDT

One thing to keep in mind is that it is theoretically possible that CNN will have only eight people in the top-tier debate. It’s not likely, but possible. Here are the rules.

bobdevine   •   Fri Aug 14 2015 at 12:33pm PDT

Latest rumor is that 16 invitations were sent out. If true, that could suggest that CNN will put 8 candidates in the top/bottom groupings because an equal number will allow them to build a single 8-person set in the studio.

mvguy   •   Thu Aug 20 2015 at 12:10pm PDT

SneakyPete   •   Tue Aug 11 2015 at 03:20pm PDT

Thanks for the rules.

Rationales

"way behind in the polls"

applejacksK sold Chris Christie at 79.39%
August 20, 2015 @ 12:24pm PDT

"After watching both debates, I believe the only change will be Fiorina will surge passed Kasich. All others remain the same."

GeneH bought Ben Carson at 49.01%
August 07, 2015 @ 08:50am PDT

historical trend

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