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What will be the initial estimate of the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of real and nominal GDP growth in the United States, for the third quarter of 2015?

POSSIBLE ANSWERS

PREDICTED VALUE

TODAY

% change (SAAR) in RGDP

(closed)

Predicted: 1.10

Actual: 1.50

% change (SAAR) in NGDP

(closed)

Predicted: 3.00

Actual: 2.70

  • completed

Question ends

October 29, 2015 @ 05:25am PDT

Predictions Made

32

Most by: GeneH (19 predictions)

Discussion

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BeteNoire   •   Tue Sep 29 2015 at 06:14am PDT

Real growth has averaged about 2% since the begining of the recovery. I am interested in the reasoning of those who expect growth below that.

sflicht   •   Tue Sep 29 2015 at 06:42am PDT

The Atlanta Fed currently expects 1.8%. https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1

When I started this question, I initialized it at their forecast on that date , which was about 1%. This market has been slow to respond to updates in their forecasts.

BeteNoire   •   Wed Sep 23 2015 at 02:47pm PDT

You are using the Advance Estimate, correct?

sflicht   •   Wed Sep 23 2015 at 02:59pm PDT

correct. Although note that what they actually estimate is GDP not GDP growth rates. The advance estimate of GDP growth is computed from the advance estimate for Q3 GDP compared to the revised estimate for Q2 GDP.

benthinkin (ADMIN)   •   Tue Aug 18 2015 at 07:34am PDT

@sflicht apologies for the delays in publication—I’ve decreased the scale factor by an order of magnitude. We may want to run a parallel market with buckets.

sflicht   •   Tue Aug 25 2015 at 02:26pm PDT

I created bucketed versions at https://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/65499 and https://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/65500. I’ll be curious to see which are more liquid.

historical trend

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% change (SAAR) in RGDP

% change (SAAR) in NGDP