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Wisdom of the crowd
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historical trend
Background information
The US NSA is said to spend $79.9 million on a program to build a "cryptologically useful quantum computer", according to information leaked by former NSA contractor Edward Snowden. On the other hand, China is also pulling out all the stops to beat its arch rival with a crypto-cracking machine of its own. In 2013, the National Natural Science Foundation of China funded 90 quantum-based projects.
This question will be resolved based on reporting from Washington Post, New York Times, and other major news outlets; plus popular science and technology publications, such as IEEE Spectrum and MIT Technology Review.
More information about the possible answers
Before January 01, 2016
Before Thursday December 31, 2015 21:59:59 -0800
Before January 01, 2017
Before Saturday December 31, 2016 21:59:59 -0800
Before January 01, 2018
Before Sunday December 31, 2017 21:59:59 -0800
Between December 31, 2017 and December 31, 2018
Between Sunday December 31, 2017 22:00:00 -0800 and Monday December 31, 2018 21:59:59 -0800
Between December 31, 2018 and December 31, 2019
Between Monday December 31, 2018 22:00:00 -0800 and Tuesday December 31, 2019 21:59:59 -0800
Between December 31, 2019 and December 31, 2020
Between Tuesday December 31, 2019 22:00:00 -0800 and Thursday December 31, 2020 23:59:59 -0800
Not before December 31, 2020
Not before Thursday December 31, 2020 22:00:00 -0800
Discussion
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wstritt • Fri Aug 21 2015 at 01:46pm PDT
Will market cash out based on when it is reported or when it actually happens? For example, if the NSA actually did it last week under some unknown “black project” but info that it had been done in 2015 does not leak out and get reported until August 2018, does “Before 2016” win or “2018” win? I mean, we are talking security services that probably aren’t going out of their way to tell everyone they can crack everyone’s encryption.
benthinkin (ADMIN) • Tue Jan 05 2016 at 10:14am PST
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